COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for October 29: Sharp Rise in Cases Across the Country

CP_pe_covid_291020.pdf

Published on 30 October 2020

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Published weekly, the epidemiological update on COVID-19 surveillance provides a detailed analysis of the various indicators established by Santé publique France and its network of partners to track the progression of the epidemic and inform public policy decisions. The epidemiological update of October 29 confirms a significant increase in all indicators tracking the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in metropolitan France. The utmost vigilance must be maintained toward at-risk individuals, particularly the elderly, given the vulnerability of this population, which accounts for the highest number of deaths due to SARS-CoV-2.

A sharp increase in all indicators

In Week 43 (October 19–25, 2020), 263,143 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recorded in France, representing a 54% increase compared to Week 42 (October 12–18). The positivity rate was 18.6% in week 43, a sharp increase (+4.8 percentage points).

In hospitals, the weekly number of new hospitalizations for COVID-19 rose sharply in Week 43, with 12,176 new hospitalizations (7,530 in Week 42, a 62% increase).

The number of new admissions to intensive care also rose sharply (1,816 admissions in Week 43 vs. 1,343 in Week 42, a 35% increase) across all regions of France.

Widespread transmission of the epidemic among people aged 65 and older

The incidence has risen sharply among people aged 65 and older (65–74 years: +68%; 75 years and older: +89%). Since early September (Week 36), the number of cases among people aged 65 to 74 has increased sevenfold, and the number of cases among people aged 75 and older has increased eightfold. This rise in cases among older adults is deeply concerning, as they are at the highest risk of COVID-19 complications.

Incidence rates in metropolitan areas are rising

Since October 22, Santé publique France has been publishing an analysis of metropolitan-level data in the national epidemiological report. In week 43, incidence rates rose sharply across all 22 metropolitan areas; 18 of these areas have an incidence rate exceeding 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The four metropolitan areas with the highest incidence rates are: Saint-Étienne, Lille, Lyon, and Grenoble.

Significant increase in depressive disorders

The mental health of the French population, which had deteriorated at the start of lockdown, subsequently improved significantly across all indicators (anxiety, depression, and life satisfaction), with the exception of sleep problems, which remained at high levels.

The results of Wave 16 (October 19–21) of the CoviPrev study show a significant increase in depressive symptoms compared to the survey conducted in late September (+5 points).

In Wave 16, those aged 25–49 reported a decline in mental health regarding anxiety and depressive symptoms.

As a reminder, Santé publique France compiles and makes available to the public a list of reference websites and accessible online listening and support services: remote assistance tools during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sharp increase in deaths

The number of deaths during hospitalization and in long-term care facilities (ESMS) related to COVID-19 rose sharply in Week 43, with 1,318 deaths (872 deaths in Week 42, +51%). This increase was particularly high in hospitals (1,078 deaths in Week 43 vs. 672 in Week 42, +60%). Data on deaths among residents of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities are not consolidated.

However, the rise in the number of COVID-19 cases among residents of nursing homes raises concerns about an increase in deaths in the coming weeks.

Nationally, the number of deaths from all causes and across all age groups in Week 40 (September 28–October 4) and Week 41 (October 5–11) was significantly higher than expected, with a moderate excess.