COVID-19 Epidemiological Update, July 22, 2021. The number of new cases has more than doubled, and hospitalizations are rising: encouraging vaccination to achieve sufficient herd immunity
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Stéphanie Champion: 01 41 79 67 48
Marie Delibéros: 01 41 79 69 61
Camille Le Hyaric: 01 41 79 68 64
In week 28 (July 12–18), a sharp increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission was observed across the country, with 58,442 new confirmed cases.
The increase in the incidence rate (adjusted to account for the July 14 holiday to 99 per 100,000, +143%) was observed across all regions and age groups. For the first time in 15 weeks, the hospitalization rate (+55%) and the number of patients admitted to intensive care units (+35%) rose sharply.
Contact tracing data confirmed a sharp rise in the number of cases linked to gathering places, particularly bars where safety measures cannot be maintained. As of July 20, 2021, nearly 57% of the population had received at least one dose of the vaccine, and nearly 47% were fully vaccinated. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in viral circulation, widespread transmission of the Delta variant, and summer vacations, adherence to all combined preventive measures must remain at a high level.
To this end, vaccination of all eligible individuals must be strongly encouraged to achieve a sufficient level of herd immunity as quickly as possible and avoid a sharp increase in the number of hospitalized patients and the strain on hospitals that this could cause.
Very sharp increase in viral circulation accompanied by rising hospital indicators
Nationally, in week 28, the adjusted incidence rate had doubled or more across all age groups, with the exception of those aged 70 and older, where it nevertheless also increased. The highest rates and sharpest increases were observed among those aged 20–29 (311 per 100,000 inhabitants, +168%), those aged 10–19 (156, +146%), and those aged 30–39 (141, +143%). The testing rate increased less sharply (+16%). The positivity rate rose to 2.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points. The number of cases referred for suspected COVID-19 was up at SOS Médecins clinics (1,047, +61%) and in emergency departments (1,118, +15%).
After 15 weeks of decline, a sharp increase in new hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care units was observed (+55% and +35%). The number of COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized as of July 20 was 6,971, including 889 in intensive care units.
In all metropolitan regions, the adjusted incidence rate rose sharply by between +90% and +356%; the highest rates were observed in Corsica (217, +356%), Occitanie (176, +198%), Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (164, +219%), Nouvelle-Aquitaine (110, +251%), and Île-de-France (109, +97%).
In the overseas territories, the epidemiological situation was deteriorating in Martinique, with a sharp increase in the adjusted incidence rate (706/100,000, +152%) for the third consecutive week, along with indicators and hospital pressure continuing to rise. Viral circulation remained high in French Guiana and Réunion, with incidence rates of 212 and 211 per 100,000, respectively.
Furthermore, the Delta variant is now the dominant strain in mainland France: it accounted for 81% of interpretable sequenced viruses in Flash Survey #14 dated July 6.
High attendance at gathering places: vaccination and preventive measures remain essential
In Week 28, the number of cases and identified contacts continued to rise sharply (up 111% and 82%, respectively). The number of cases reporting having visited a gathering place was rising sharply. Among these venues, bars saw the sharpest increase in attendance (+192% of cases having visited one).
As of July 20, 2021, 56.9% of the population in France had received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 46.7% were fully vaccinated. Vaccination coverage among people aged 12 and older was 66.1% for one dose and 54.3% for full vaccination. It remained stagnant at 80.9% for one dose and 76.1% for full vaccination among those over 80.
Finally, data from the survey on vaccination in long-term care facilities showed that while vaccination coverage was high among residents of nursing homes, residential care facilities, and long-term care facilities (over 80% for full vaccination), coverage among healthcare professionals working in these facilities was lower regardless of the type of facility. Among healthcare professionals, physicians had the highest vaccination rates, while nursing assistants had the lowest.
Interpreting the Epidemic During the Summer: Key Insights
Since the start of the pandemic, Santé publique France has relied on numerous indicators (more than 100 related to COVID) to assess its trends and dynamics.
The incidence rate, which reflects the circulation of the virus, is one of them. It corresponds to the ratio of the number of people testing positive to the number of residents in a given area. This rate takes into account the place of residence of those tested, not the location where they were tested. It is based on INSEE data listing the number of residents for each geographic unit, which cannot account for tourist flows. While the incidence rate does not include tourists, it still provides insight into the dynamics of the epidemic in the region in question.
Other indicators, such as healthcare utilization (SOS Médecin, emergency room visits), hospitalizations, and clusters, are not affected by the place of residence of infected individuals or the location where samples were collected. These various indicators contribute significantly to the enhanced surveillance system implemented since the start of the epidemic, which enables the detection of signals at very granular territorial levels.
Thus, it is not the incidence rate alone but rather the analysis of all indicators that informs decision-making in response to the epidemic.
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22 July 2021
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