Key Points

COVID-19: Declining indicators should not undermine the enforcement of preventive measures

In week 47, Covid-19 surveillance indicators continued their significant downward trend across all departments. The effective reproduction numbers (R_eff) estimated from SI-DEP, OSCOUR®, and SI-VIC data were all significantly below 1, a finding consistent with a decline in the epidemic.

Regarding mortality data, a decrease in the weekly number of hospital deaths was observed starting in week 47. Subject to consolidation of the data reported by INSEE, a decrease in all-cause deaths also appeared to begin in week 46; however, significant excess deaths were estimated in week 46 across several departments in the region, particularly among those aged 65 and older.

Although epidemiological indicators remain at high levels, these data reflect a decline in the epidemic and a decrease in the level of infection at the regional level. This trend is also observed nationwide; it occurs more than a month after the first tightening of social distancing measures and underscores their likely positive impact on the dynamics of the epidemic.

Viral transmission remains active, however, and these encouraging results should not lead to a lowering of vigilance in the application of preventive measures.