COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for January 28, 2021. Already high indicators continue to rise; the situation is very concerning given the presence of more transmissible variants

CP_pe_covid_280121_v2.pdf

Published on 29 January 2021

Press Contacts

Santé publique France
presse@santepubliquefrance.fr

Stéphanie Champion: 01 41 79 67 48
Marie Delibéros: 01 41 79 69 61
Camille Le Hyaric: 01 41 79 68 64

Published weekly, the epidemiological update on COVID-19 surveillance provides a detailed analysis of the indicators established by Santé publique France and its network of partners to track the progression of the epidemic and inform public policy decisions. In week 03 (January 18–24, 2021), the number of new confirmed cases (141,238) increased by 9%, while testing remained stable. The results of the first flash survey confirm that COVID-19 cases linked to the 20I/501Y.V1 variant accounted for 3.3% of cases in France during Week 01. In this context, the evolving situation is very concerning. New results from the CoviPrev survey show, on the one hand, that French people’s uptake of vaccination is increasing and, on the other hand, that anxiety and depressive symptoms remain at a high level.

Alarming Rise in Epidemiological Indicators

With an average of 20,177 new confirmed cases per day in week 03 and the circulation of variants across the country, the level of the epidemic is concerning. Although the incidence is stabilizing among people aged 75 and older, they remain the group most affected by SARS-CoV-2.

Hospital indicators are rising sharply. The number of patients hospitalized in France for COVID-19 remains high, with 27,041 people hospitalized as of January 26, 2021, including 3,081 in intensive care.

The number of new hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients increased by 16% (11,155 new hospitalizations in week 03 versus 9,631 in week 02), and the number of new intensive care admissions rose by 20% (1,706 in week 03 versus 1,418 in week 02). The weekly number of deaths, including those occurring in hospitals and long-term care facilities, remained high in week 02 (unconsolidated S03 data). Thus, more than 74,000 COVID-19-related deaths were reported from March 1, 2020, to January 26, 2021.

Early Curfew: Limited Impact on the Outbreak

By week 03, there is now sufficient data to assess the impact of the early curfew in the first 15 departments where it was implemented on January 2 (Group 1) as well as in the 10 departments where this measure was extended starting January 10 and 12 (Group 2).

A decline in the incidence rate had been observed in the first 15 departments in Week 02, but this trend reversed in Week 03. Thus, incidence rates increased by +5% in Group 1, +15% in Group 2, and +9% in Group 3 (i.e., the 71 departments placed under an early curfew on January 16). These findings do not support the notion that the early curfew had a positive impact on containing the unfavorable spread of the epidemic.

January 7 and 8: The 20I/501Y.V1 variant accounted for more than 3 out of every 100 COVID-19 cases

The discovery of more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants led to the implementation of studies necessary to assess their prevalence across the country. To create an initial map, the CNR Respiratory Infections Virus (Lyon Associated Laboratory) and Santé publique France, in collaboration with the ANRS Emerging Infectious Diseases, asked all public and private clinical laboratories (LBMs) to submit, for confirmation by sequencing, samples with RT-PCR results suggesting a variant that were returned on January 7 and 8.

135 laboratories (+46 compared to the preliminary results presented in S02), spread across 12 regions of metropolitan France, participated in this survey.

This first Flash survey estimated that the 20I/501Y.V1 variants accounted for 3.3% of COVID-19 cases diagnosed by RT-PCR in France at the time of the survey (i.e., approximately 4,200 cases in week 01 among all cases reported in SIDEP) with a heterogeneous distribution across the country ranging from 0.2% in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté to 6.9% in Île-de-France.

The second Flash survey will analyze the results of tests conducted on January 27, 2021. The objective of this second survey is to determine the level of circulation of the 20I/501Y.V1 (UK) variant, as well as those of the 20H/501Y.V2 (ZA) and 20J/501Y.V3 (BR) variants.

Preventive measures, mental health, and vaccine uptake: after a year of the pandemic, where do the French stand?

The CoviPrev survey tracks the adoption of preventive measures and mental health indicators. Wave 20, conducted between January 18 and 20, 2021, shows that among preventive measures, those related to limiting social interaction (avoiding gatherings and face-to-face meetings, avoiding festive gatherings, avoiding visits to elderly, frail, or vulnerable individuals) are adopted less consistently than in Wave 19 (December 14–16, 2020). The consistent wearing of masks in public remains the measure reported as most frequently followed (85%).

In parallel with the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, its acceptance among the French public has improved. In Wave 20, more than 54% of respondents said they definitely or probably wanted to get vaccinated against COVID-19, compared to 40% in Wave 19. Although the strongest increase was among women (29% in Wave 19 versus 49% in Wave 20), men, higher socioeconomic groups, and people aged 65 and older remain the most likely to get vaccinated. Among the barriers identified to vaccination, “vaccine safety” remains the most significant and is cited by 81% of those who did not wish to be vaccinated. Efforts must continue to inform the public about vaccines (tolerability, availability of new vaccines and doses, efficacy, etc.).

Regarding mental health, the pandemic situation and the measures taken to control it are having a significant impact on the population’s mental health. After doubling between September and November, the prevalence of depressive symptoms has stabilized at a high level since Wave 17 (November 4–6)—approximately 20% versus 10% according to data from the 2017 Health Barometer. Anxiety levels also remain high, above 19% (vs. 13.5% in the 2017 Health Barometer).

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