Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy for Parkinson's disease (2010–2030) in France
Background: Previous studies estimating the future number of Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients based on population projections underestimated the burden of PD because they did not account for increases in life expectancy over time. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the progression of PD from 2010 to 2030 in France in terms of the number of patients with the disease, prevalence rates, lifetime risk, and life expectancy with PD, taking into account projections of overall mortality and the increased risk of death among PD patients. Methods: To provide projections of the PD burden, we applied a multistate model that accounts for age and calendar time to incidence and prevalence rates of PD (France, 2010) based on drug claims and national demographic data. Results: The number of PD patients will increase by approximately 65% between 2010 (n = 155,000) and 2030 (n ≈ 260,000), primarily among individuals older than 65 years; the prevalence rate of PD among those aged 45 and older will rise from 0.59% in 2010 to approximately 0.80% in 2030. We project an increase of approximately 3 years in the life expectancy of PD patients at age 65 between 2010 (women, 14.8 years; men, 13.0 years) and 2030 (women, 17.8 years; men, 16.1 years), and a relative increase of about 10% in the lifetime risk of PD at age 45 between 2010 (women, 5.5%; men, 6.0%) and 2030 (women, 6.3%; men, 7.4%). Conclusions: The number of PD patients is predicted to grow substantially in the coming years as a result of population aging and increased life expectancy. Assessing the future burden of PD is an important step in planning the resources needed for patient care in aging societies.
Author(s): Wanneveich Mathilde, Moisan Frédéric, Jacqmin-Gadda Hélène, Elbaz Alexis, Joly Pierre
Publishing year: 2018
Pages: 1449-1455
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