Background: Female lung cancer mortality in France has increased by 3% annually over the past twenty years, reaching 4,500 deaths in 2000. This increase, which has not been observed among men, is attributed to the rise in smoking among women. To address the concerns of healthcare stakeholders, it was deemed necessary to estimate the mortality rates and the expected number of female deaths from this cancer over the next fifteen years in metropolitan France and in each of its regions. Methods: The analysis focused on the number of female deaths from lung cancer from 1975 to 1999 and on past and future estimated population figures from 1975 to 2014, at the national and regional levels. Deaths and mortality rates for 1975–1999 were calculated by period and five-year age group and projected for the period 2000–2014, for each region and for metropolitan France. The analysis uses the Bayesian approach of an age-cohort model with autoregressive constraints. Results: In metropolitan France, female mortality from lung cancer increased by 3% per year between 1975 and 1999. During 1995–99, the age-standardized rate for the truncated 20–85+ age group and the average annual number of deaths were 11.4 per 100,000 and 4,000, respectively. The rate increased in all regions, but the largest increase was observed in Corsica (+314%), and the smallest in Auvergne (+37%). For metropolitan France, the age-standardized rate is projected to reach 14.1 and 22.5 per 100,000 in 2000–2004 and 2010–2014, respectively, representing a 60% increase between these two periods. At the regional level, the largest increase is expected in Languedoc-Roussillon (107%), and the smallest in Nord-Pas-de-Calais (40%). Conclusions: The Bayesian approach to the age-cohort model is being used more and more frequently because it ensures the stability of rate projections and eliminates the need to analyze cancer etiological factors. It would, however, be interesting to supplement this model with a component that accounts for smoking, allowing for the development of scenarios based on declining consumption.