Key Points

• Nationally, the decline in the weekly number of deaths from all causes observed since week S04 continued more markedly in week S08 (February 22–28, 2021).

• The number of deaths has been significantly higher than expected for 22 consecutive weeks (between S40-2020 and S08-2021) at the national level.

• In week 08, excess deaths from all causes were observed in 4 regions and 9 metropolitan departments.

Summary

Nationally

The observed number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from Week 40-2020 through Week 08-2021, a span of 22 consecutive weeks. Following a decrease in death counts between Weeks 50 and 52, death counts began rising again through Week 03-2021. Between weeks 04 and 08, a decrease in mortality is confirmed and appears more pronounced in week 08. The estimated excess deaths for the first seven weeks of 2021 range from +14% to +22%. Due to the usual delay in data transmission, the estimate of excess deaths for week 08-2021 will be refined next week.

Based on electronic death certificates, the number of deaths also rose between weeks 53 and 02, remained stable between weeks 03 and 05, and then began to decline starting in week 06. In week 09, 3,999 deaths were certified electronically, 7% fewer than in week 08 (a decrease of 303 deaths).

In both data sources, all-cause mortality is predominantly observed among people over 65 years of age. The excess of all-cause deaths has been observed since week 53 of 2020 solely in this age group. A decrease in all-cause mortality is noted among both those aged 65–84 and those over 85. In the latter age group, numbers appear to have returned to their usual range of fluctuation in week 08.

Based on electronic certification, the decline in deaths continued in week 09 in public and private hospitals, as well as in nursing homes. However, they remained stable among those at home.

At the regional level

In mainland France, the number of deaths from all causes appears to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation in most regions, except in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and Hauts-de-France, where numbers remain high despite a decrease in week 08, and in Île-de-France and Normandy, where the number of deaths remains close to the upper limit of the usual fluctuation range. These trends remain to be confirmed as data is consolidated.

Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in 4 regions during week 08: Hauts-de-France, Île-de-France, Normandy, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, as well as in 9 departments.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths is decreasing in nearly all regions in week 09 compared to week 08, except in Brittany, Pays-de-la-Loire, and Grand-Est, where numbers remain stable. An increase is also noted in Réunion and Martinique.