Summary

Nationally, after the number of deaths (recorded by civil registry offices) returned to within the usual fluctuation range across all age groups from February 22 to February 4, 2018 (weeks 4 and 5), a new increase in mortality was observed during the first three weeks of February (weeks 6 to 8). The number of deaths across all age groups was near the threshold during these three weeks. The observed mortality rate among people aged 85 and older was significantly higher than expected in week 8.

At the regional level, it is primarily the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est, and Occitanie regions that are affected by this slight increase in mortality in February, with figures remaining near the threshold.

In total, over the period from December 4, 2017, to February 11, 2018, an excess mortality rate of 7% across all age groups is estimated, representing approximately 8,500 additional deaths (estimate extrapolated to the whole of France). When analyzed by age group, the excess is estimated at 9.7% among those aged 15–64 and 6.2% among those aged 65 and older. The regions most affected by this excess mortality across all age groups are Occitanie (+13%), Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (+11.4%), Corsica (+16%), and Île-de-France (+10%).

At the European level, among the countries participating in the EuroMomo network (www.euromomo.eu), the decline in mortality has continued since the beginning of the year following an increase noted in December. The observed number of deaths among those aged 65 and older appears to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation (at the threshold) (Figure 5). Excess mortality has primarily affected Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Scotland, in addition to France.

These initial observations should be interpreted with caution, as the data are not yet consolidated due to the usual transmission delays. As a reminder, these analyses are based on vital statistics data and do not contain any information on the medical causes of death.

According to data from electronic certification, 1,943 deaths were recorded during week 9 (February 26 to March 4) (Figure 4).