Key Points

• Nationally, a new increase in the weekly number of deaths from all causes was observed in week 11 (March 15–21, 2021), following a decrease observed between weeks S04 and S10.

• The number of deaths is significantly higher than expected between weeks S40-2020 and S11-2021 at the national level.

• The number of deaths is higher than expected, specifically among people aged 65–84, through week 11, while it returned to within the usual range of fluctuation as early as week 09 among those aged 85 and older.

• In week 11, excess deaths from all causes were observed in 5 regions and 12 metropolitan departments.

Summary

Nationally

The observed number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from week 40 of 2020 through week 11 of 2021, a span of 25 consecutive weeks. After a decline observed from Week 4 until returning to the upper limit of the usual fluctuation range in Weeks 9 and 10, mortality began to rise again in Week 11. The estimated excess for the first ten weeks of 2021 ranges from +7% to +22%.

Based on electronic death certificates, 4,044 deaths were recorded in week 11, a 4% decrease compared to the previous week (i.e., -167 deaths).

Based on civil registry data, deaths among those aged 65–84 remain significantly higher than expected and began rising again in week 11, while the number of deaths among those aged 85 and older returned to the usual range of fluctuation as early as week 09.Deaths certified electronically in week 11 showed a slight decrease among people aged 65–84 and remained stable in other age groups.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths in week 11 decreased slightly in public hospitals and remained stable in other types of places of death.

At the regional level

In mainland France, the number of deaths from all causes began to rise again in Week 11, notably in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and, to a lesser extent, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Grand-Est. In Hauts-de-France, the number of deaths remains stable and significantly higher than expected in week 11. In Île-de-France, it also remains significantly higher than expected in week 11, but at the upper limit of the usual fluctuation range. These trends remain to be confirmed as data is consolidated.

Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in 5 regions during week 11 (Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grand-Est, Hauts-de-France, Île-de-France, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur) and in 12 departments.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths is rising in Réunion in Week 11 and declining in Normandy, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, Centre-Val de Loire, and Pays-de-la-Loire.