Key Points

• Nationally, the decline in the weekly number of deaths from all causes observed since week S04 continued through week S10 (March 8–14, 2021).

• The number of deaths is significantly higher than expected between weeks S40-2020 and S09-2021 at the national level and appears to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation in week 10 (to be confirmed with data consolidation).

• However, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected among people aged 65–84 in week 10, while it returned to the usual range of fluctuation as early as week 09 among those aged 85 and older.

• In week 10, excess deaths from all causes were observed in Hauts-de-France and in 9 metropolitan departments.

Summary

Nationally

The observed number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from week 40 of 2020 through week 9 of 2021, a span of 23 consecutive weeks. The number of deaths in week 10 of 2021 appears to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation. Between weeks 04 and 10, mortality decreased, with a more pronounced decline beginning in week 08. The estimated excess for the first nine weeks of 2021 ranges from +7% to +22%.

Based on electronic death certificates, the number of deaths remained stable between weeks 03 and 05, before beginning to decline between weeks 06 and 09. They rose slightly again in weeks 10 and 11. In week 11, 4,200 deaths were certified electronically, 3.3% more than in week 10 (i.e., +133 deaths).

In both data sources, all-cause mortality is predominantly observed among people over 65 years of age. Based on vital statistics data, deaths among those aged 65–84 remained significantly higher than expected through week 10, while figures appear to have returned to the usual range of fluctuation as early as week 09 for those aged 85 and older.

Electronically certified deaths in week 11 are again on the rise among people aged 65–84 (+7%, or +137 deaths) and are stabilizing among those aged 85 and older.

Based on electronic reporting, the number of deaths remained stable in Week 11 in nursing homes and private clinics, but increased in public hospitals (+6%, or +175 deaths).

At the regional level

In mainland France, the number of deaths from all causes appears to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation in all regions, except in Hauts-de-France, where the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in week 10. The number of deaths in Île-de-France is also at the upper limit of the usual fluctuation range in week 10. These trends remain to be confirmed as data is consolidated.

Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in Hauts-de-France in week 10 and in 9 departments.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths is rising in week 11 in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Île-de-France, Grand Est, Normandy, Centre-Val de Loire, as well as in Réunion and Mayotte.