Key Points

• Nationally, the weekly number of deaths from all causes has been declining between weeks S04 and S07.

• The number of deaths has been significantly higher than expected for 21 consecutive weeks (between S40-2020 and S07-2021) at the national level.

• In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Centre-Val de Loire, and Hauts-de-France, the number of deaths from all causes rose slightly again in week 07.

• In week 07 (February 15–21), excess deaths from all causes were observed in 6 regions and 17 metropolitan departments.

Summary

Nationally

The observed number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from week 40 of 2020 through week 7 of 2021, a span of 21 consecutive weeks. After a decrease in death counts between weeks 50 and 52, the number of deaths began rising again through week 3 of 2021. Between weeks 04 and 07, a decrease in mortality was confirmed. The estimated excess deaths for the first six weeks of 2021 range from +14% to +22%. Due to the usual delay in data transmission, the estimate of excess deaths for week 07-2021 will be refined next week.

Based on electronic death certificates, the number of deaths also rose between weeks 53 and 02, remained stable between weeks 03 and 05, and then began to decline slightly starting in week 06.

In both data sources, all-cause mortality is predominantly observed among people over 65 years of age. Excess all-cause mortality has been observed since week 53 of 2020 exclusively in this age group. A more pronounced decrease in all-cause mortality is noted among people over 85, while it remains moderate among those aged 65–84.

Based on electronic certification, the decline in deaths continued in week 08 in public and private hospitals, as well as in nursing homes. However, they remained stable among those at home.

At the regional level

In mainland France, the trend in mortality during week 06 appears to be declining in most regions. Regional disparities persist. Thus, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Centre-Val de Loire, and Hauts-de-France, the number of deaths rose slightly again in week 07 compared to week 06. In Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and Grand-Est, the number of deaths in week 07 is stabilizing. In Île-de-France, a slight decrease appears to be observed in week 07, but the numbers remain significantly higher than expected. This trend remains to be confirmed as data is consolidated.

Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in 6 regions during Week 07: Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grand-Est, Centre-Val de Loire, Hauts-de-France, Île-de-France, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, as well as in 17 departments.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths increased in week 08 compared to week 07 in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Île-de-France and stabilized in Hauts-de-France after a sharp rise in week 07 in that region.