Key Points

• Nationally, the decline in the weekly number of deaths from all causes observed since week S04 has continued more markedly in weeks S08 and S09 (February 22 to March 8, 2021).

• The number of deaths has been significantly higher than expected for 22 consecutive weeks (between S40-2020 and S08-2021) at the national level. For all age groups, as well as for those aged 85 and older, it appears to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation in week 09-2021 (to be confirmed once data is consolidated).

• However, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected among people aged 65–84 in week 09.

• In week 09, excess deaths from all causes were observed in 2 regions (PACA and Hauts-de-France) and in 9 metropolitan departments.

Summary

Nationally

The observed number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from week 40 of 2020 through week 08 of 2021, marking 22 consecutive weeks. The number of deaths in week 09-2021 appears to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation. Between weeks 04 and 09, mortality decreased, with a more pronounced decline in weeks 08 and 09.

The estimated excess for the first eight weeks of 2021 ranges from +9% to +22%. Based on electronic death certificates, the number of deaths also rose between weeks 53 and 02, remained stable between weeks 03 and 05, before beginning to decline between weeks 06 and 09. In week 10, the figures stabilized, with 4,045 deaths certified electronically, representing a 0.8% increase compared to week 09 (i.e., +34 deaths).

In both data sources, all-cause mortality is observed predominantly among people over 65 years of age. The decrease in all-cause mortality is noted among both those aged 65–84 and those over 85. In the latter age group, numbers appear to have returned to the usual range of fluctuation as of week 08, while the numbers observed among those aged 65–84 remain significantly higher than expected over these two weeks.

Based on electronic certification, the decline in deaths continued in week 10 in nursing homes/retirement homes, but case numbers stabilized in public hospitals and increased in private clinics and at home.

At the regional level

In mainland France, the number of deaths from all causes appears to be returning to the usual fluctuation range in most regions, except in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, where case numbers remain high, and in Hauts-de-France, where the number of deaths remains close to the upper limit of the usual fluctuation range. These trends remain to be confirmed as data is consolidated.

Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in two regions during week 09: Hauts-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, and in nine departments.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths is stable or decreasing in most regions in week 10, except in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Occitanie, Grand-Est, Normandy, and Brittany, where figures are rising slightly.