Summary

Nationally, following an increase in all-cause mortality observed from December through the first week of January 2018, the number of deaths across all age groups declined during the two-week period from January 8 to 21, 2018 (Figure 1). In total, over the 5-week period from December 4, 2017, to January 7, 2018, an 8% excess mortality rate across all age groups is estimated, corresponding to approximately 4,800 excess deaths (estimate extrapolated to the whole of France).Analysis by age group shows a different and chronological trend in mortality within the relevant age groups (Figure 2):

• among adults aged 15–64, the number of deaths increased starting in early December, peaking in week 52 (December 25–31, 2017). Numbers appear to have returned to within the usual range of fluctuations starting in week 2 (January 8–14),

• among people aged 65 and older, the rise in mortality began in mid-December, peaking in early January. However, case numbers remained high in week 2. Over the five-week period from December 4 to January 7, 2018, the excess was estimated at +12% among adults aged 15–64 and +7% among those aged 65 and older.

At the regional level, an increase was observed in several regions and is particularly pronounced in three regions: Occitanie, PACA, and Île-de-France.

These initial observations should be interpreted with caution, as the data are not yet consolidated due to the usual transmission delays. As a reminder, these analyses are based on civil registry data and do not contain any information on the medical causes of death.

According to data from electronic certification, 1,741 deaths were recorded during the fourth week of 2018 (January 22–28).