Summary

Nationally, all-cause mortality reported by INSEE has risen gradually across all age groups and has exceeded the usual fluctuation thresholds since mid-December (week 50). Analysis by age group shows a different and sequential trend in mortality within the relevant age groups:

• an observed number of deaths among adults aged 15–64 significantly above the thresholds during the four weeks of December (W49–W52) and the first week of January (W01), followed by a sharp decrease in the second week of January,

• an observed number of deaths among people aged 65–84 that was significantly above the thresholds during the last two weeks of December (W51 and W52) and the first week of January (W01), followed by a decrease in the second week of January,

• the observed number of deaths among people aged 85 and older rose sharply and was significantly above the thresholds during the first two weeks (W01 and W02) of January 2018.

At the regional level, an increase is observed in several regions, and is particularly pronounced in three regions—Occitanie, PACA, and Île-de-France—where a significant rise in mortality has continued since mid-December. This trend has gradually shifted across different age groups.

These initial observations should be interpreted with caution, as the data are not yet consolidated due to the usual transmission delays. As a reminder, these analyses are based on civil registry data and do not contain any information on the medical causes of death.

According to data from electronic certification, 1,755 deaths were recorded during the third week of 2018 (January 15–21).