Key Points

• Nationally, the weekly number of deaths from all causes rose again between weeks 53-2021 and 03-2021 and appears to have stabilized at a high level since week 04.

• The number of deaths has been significantly higher than expected for 18 consecutive weeks (between Week 40 of 2020 and Week 4 of 2021).

• In week 04, excess deaths were reported in 8 metropolitan areas and 23 departments.

Summary

Nationally

The observed number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from week 40-2020 through week 04-2021, a span of 18 consecutive weeks. After a decrease in death counts between weeks 50 and 52, death counts began rising again through week 03-2021 and appear to have stabilized at a high level in week 04. The estimated excess for the first three weeks of 2021 ranges from +16% to +20%. Due to the usual delay in data transmission, the estimate of excess deaths for week 04-2021 will be refined next week.

Based on electronic death certificates, the number of deaths also rose between weeks 53 and 03 and appears to be stabilizing in weeks 04 and 05 (+35 deaths, or +0.8% compared to week 04).

In both data sources, all-cause mortality is predominantly observed among people over 65 years of age.

Based on electronic certification, the majority of deaths occurred in public hospitals. Numbers appear to be stabilizing in week 05 in private hospitals and nursing homes/retirement homes, while they are decreasing slightly in public hospitals.

At the regional level

Mortality trends over the past few weeks vary by region. Specifically:

• in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grand-Est, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Hauts-de-France, Centre-Val de Loire, Occitanie, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the number of deaths remained stable or decreased slightly in week 04 compared to the previous week, but remained at a high level.

• a moderate excess at the upper limit of the usual fluctuation margins in Nouvelle-Aquitaine (weeks 01 to 03), Normandy (weeks 02 to 04), and Île-de-France (weeks 53 and 02-2021).

These trends remain to be confirmed as data is progressively consolidated.

Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in 8 regions in week 04: Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est, Centre-Val de Loire, Hauts-de-France, Normandy, Occitanie, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, as well as in 23 departments. These excess deaths mainly concern people aged 65 and older.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths increased in week 05 compared to week 04 in the regions of Brittany, Île-de-France, Normandy, and Occitanie.