Key Points

• Nationally, the weekly number of deaths from all causes has been declining between weeks S04 and S06.

• The number of deaths has been significantly higher than expected for 20 consecutive weeks (between S40-2020 and S06-2021) at the national level.

• In week 06 (February 1–7), excess deaths from all causes were observed in 6 regions and 13 metropolitan departments.

Summary

Nationally

The observed number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from Week 40-2020 through Week 06-2021, a span of 20 consecutive weeks. Following a decrease in death counts between Weeks 50 and 52, death counts began rising again through Week 03-2021. Between weeks 04 and 06, a decrease in mortality is confirmed. The estimated excess deaths for the first five weeks of 2021 range from +16% to +22%. Due to the usual delay in data transmission, the estimate of excess deaths for week 06-2021 will be refined next week.

Based on electronic death certificates, the numbers also rose between weeks 53 and 02, remained stable between weeks 03 and 05, before beginning a slight decrease in weeks 06 (-3.7% compared to week S05) and 07 (-62 deaths, or -1.4% compared to week 06).

In both data sources, all-cause mortality is predominantly observed among people over 65 years of age. The excess of all-cause deaths has been observed since week 53 of 2020 solely in this age group.

Based on electronic certification, deaths decreased in week 07 in public healthcare facilities as well as in nursing homes. In contrast, they increased slightly in private healthcare facilities (+68 deaths, or +8.3%).

At the regional level

The number of deaths appears to be declining in most regions that have recorded excess deaths over the past few weeks. This is particularly the case in Normandy, Hauts-de-France, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, although the numbers remain higher than expected, particularly in the latter region. In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, the number of deaths also continued to decline in week 06 and returned to the upper end of the usual fluctuation range for the first time since week 40.

In contrast, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Grand-Est, the number of deaths rose slightly again in week 06 after a sharp decline in week 05. In Île-de-France, the number of deaths, which had already been moderately above expectations since week 03, also appears to be increasing in week 06. These trends remain to be confirmed as data is progressively consolidated.

Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in 6 regions during week 06: Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est, Hauts-de-France, Île-de-France, Normandy, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, as well as in 13 departments. Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths increased in week 07 compared to week 06 in Hauts-de-France, Centre-Val de Loire, and Brittany.