Summary

Key Points

• Nationally, the weekly number of deaths from all causes began to rise again between weeks 53-2021 and 03-2021, before starting to decline in weeks 04 and 05.

• The number of deaths has been significantly higher than expected for 19 consecutive weeks (between Week 40 of 2020 and Week 5 of 2021).

• In week 05 (February 1–7), excess deaths from all causes were observed in 9 regions and 15 metropolitan departments.

Summary

Nationally

The observed number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from week 40-2020 through week 05-2021, a span of 19 consecutive weeks. After a decrease in death counts between weeks 50 and 52, death counts began to rise again through week 03-2021, then appeared to start declining in weeks 04 and 05. The estimated excess for the first four weeks of 2021 ranges from +17% to +22%. Due to the usual delay in data transmission, the estimate of excess deaths for week 05-2021 will be refined next week. Based on electronic death certificates, the number of deaths also rose between weeks 53 and 02, remained stable between weeks 03 and 05, before beginning a slight decline in week 06 (-193 deaths, or -4% compared to week 05). In both data sources, all-cause mortality is observed predominantly among people over 65 years of age. The excess of all-cause deaths has been observed since week 53-2020 solely in this age group.

Based on electronic certification, deaths decreased in Week 06 in
hospitals, nursing homes, and at home.

At the regional level

Mortality trends over the past few weeks vary by region. Specifically:

• In Normandy, the number of deaths increased in week 05 compared to the previous week

• In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est, and to a lesser extent in Hauts-de-France, Centre-Val de Loire, and Occitanie, the number of deaths decreased in week 05 compared to the previous week.

• In Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the number of deaths remained stable at a high level in week 05,

• a moderate excess at the upper limit of the usual fluctuation range is observed in Nouvelle-Aquitaine (weeks 1 to 3) and in Île-de-France (weeks 53 and between 2 and 5 of 2021).

These trends remain to be confirmed as data is progressively consolidated. Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in 9 regions in week 05: Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est, Centre-Val de Loire, Hauts-de-France, Île-de-France, Normandy, Occitanie, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, as well as in 15 departments. Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths increased in week 06 compared
to week 05 in Île-de-France.