Background: Exposure of children to lead, even at low levels, can cause neurobehavioral and intellectual impairments. The consensus conference on lead poisoning in children aged 1 to 6 and in pregnant women, held in France in 2003, identified industrial exposure as a priority for implementing lead poisoning screening. It is therefore important to define selection criteria for sites where systematic screening should be initiated, as measuring blood lead levels requires a blood draw, which is an invasive procedure. Methods: We propose modeling blood lead levels in children aged 1 to 6 years based on environmental measurements, human exposure parameters, and a dose-response relationship between exposure and blood lead levels. The proposed decision criteria are the average and unfavorable blood lead levels predicted by the model. This method is illustrated by the real-world case of a foundry. Results: For the foundry studied, the modeled exposures are below 100 μg(Pb)/L(blood) and do not warrant recommending systematic screening for childhood lead poisoning. Conclusion: Indirect exposure estimation combined with blood lead level prediction is useful for determining the relevance of childhood lead poisoning around an industrial site. Suggestions for improving this decision-making tool are proposed.