Summary

The decline in the number of COVID-19 cases continues in Nouvelle-Aquitaine

As in France, the peak of the community-based outbreak was observed in week 13 (March 23–29), one week after the implementation of lockdown measures for the general population on March 17, 2020. Following the announcement of Phase 3 of the post-lockdown plan, epidemiological indicators have continued the downward trend observed in recent weeks and have remained at a very low level for more than 14 weeks. Activity by SOS Médecins and the number of emergency room visits for suspected COVID-19 remain low. In hospitals, the number of hospitalized patients and the number of patients in intensive care for COVID-19 continue to decline. The number of reported COVID-19 cases in medical and social care facilities is also decreasing significantly in the region. The incidence rate calculated from laboratory results is 0.9 positive results per 100,000 inhabitants for the region, and the positivity rate is 0.4 positive results per 100 tests performed, confirming low viral circulation. Similarly, the effective reproduction number (R_e), which represents the average number of people infected (secondary cases) by an infectious person (index case), is estimated over a 7-day rolling period based on data from the OSCOUR® network at 0.55 [0.41–0.71] in Nouvelle-Aquitaine. This effective R value below 1 thus means that an infected person infects fewer than one other person and that, consequently, the epidemic is in decline. Furthermore, last week, no new clusters were identified, and as of June 16, no clusters are active in the region. However, the virus continues to circulate, as evidenced by the emergence of new confirmed cases and the identification of clusters in several regions. Consequently, vigilance is required despite the continued decline in viral circulation.

Epidemic resurgences observed in several countries

While the epidemic is in a declining phase in Europe, South America is now the continent with the highest number of cases, particularly Brazil, which is experiencing a very significant health impact with over 40,000 deaths. In India, the epidemic is in an exponential phase, and some major cities have implemented a second lockdown. Localized clusters are being reported in certain Asian countries: in Beijing, South Korea, and the epidemic is very active in Singapore.

Let’s remain vigilant

As life returns to “normal,” preventive behaviors and the consistent adoption of all recommended measures—including mask-wearing—have significantly declined (Santé publique France CoviPrev survey). Low-level transmission, low or high population immunity, asymptomatic or mild cases, adherence to preventive measures, etc.—all these factors can influence viral circulation, but one thing is certain: even if the number of cases is low in our region, the virus is still present in our area. Let’s stay vigilant!