COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for January 7, 2021: The outbreak shows no signs of abating, indicators remain at high levels, and the trend over the next two weeks will be decisive

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Published on 8 January 2021

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Santé publique France
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Stéphanie Champion: 01 41 79 67 48
Marie Delibéros: 01 41 79 69 61
Camille Le Hyaric: 01 41 79 68 64

Published weekly, the epidemiological update on COVID-19 surveillance provides a detailed analysis of the various indicators established by Santé publique France and its network of partners to track the progression of the epidemic and inform public policy decisions. In Week 53 (December 28, 2020, to January 3, 2021), marking the start of the observation period for the impact of the holiday season, the virus is circulating more widely: the number of new cases increased by 17% compared to Week 52, while testing decreased by 39%, with 1,776,800 people tested. The trend over the next two weeks will be decisive in determining whether the epidemic will rebound. Particular vigilance is being paid to the emergence of the new British and South African variants, with 19 cases reported for the former and 3 for the latter.

A pivotal moment in monitoring a potential resurgence of the epidemic

Week 53 marks the start of the period during which a potential increase in epidemiological indicators linked to the end-of-year holidays may begin to be observed.

Several indicators are already on the rise, reflecting the impact of these holidays, particularly Christmas. The number of confirmed cases has increased by 17% (96,536 cases vs. 82,687 cases in Week 52). With an average of 13,820 confirmed cases per day in France during Week 53, the number of confirmed cases remains at a high level. The increase was observed across all age groups.

Testing rates have dropped significantly across all age groups compared to previous weeks: the testing rate was 2,647 per 100,000 inhabitants (or 1,776,800 people tested), a 39% decrease between weeks 52 and 53. This trend contrasts with previous weeks: +27% during New Year’s week, +76% during Christmas week.

The increase in the number of confirmed cases amid a decrease in the number of people tested suggests a real increase in incidence between weeks 52 and 53.

The positivity rate of 5.4%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, could lead to an increase in cases in the coming days, particularly among those aged 60 and older.

Weekly rates of hospitalizations and new ICU admissions were stable (down 3% and up 2%, respectively). The number of patients hospitalized in France for COVID-19 remained high, with 24,904 COVID-19 patients hospitalized on January 5, 2021, including 2,625 in the ICU.
The number of new COVID-19-related deaths, including deaths occurring in hospitals and long-term care facilities (deaths occurring at home not included), remained high. In week 53, 2,035 deaths were recorded; however, as the death data are not yet consolidated, this figure cannot yet be interpreted.

Surveillance of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants

As of January 6, 2021, 19 cases of infection with the VOC 202012/01 variant (identified in the United Kingdom) and three cases of infection with the 501.V2 variant (identified in South Africa) had been confirmed in mainland France.

Surveillance of these new variants, conducted in collaboration with the CNR Virus des infections respiratoires, is being strengthened. It is likely that the spread of these variants within the country is currently underestimated, and the presence of at least two cases of the UK variant with no direct link to the United Kingdom suggests the onset of community transmission. Several actions are now being initiated by Santé publique France and the CNR Virus des infections respiratoires to better assess and monitor the spread of these emerging variants across the country. In particular, a rapid investigation mobilizing a network of hospital virologists coordinated by the ANRS Maladies infectieuses émergentes is scheduled for the end of this week. This study will provide an initial estimate of the level of circulation of the UK variant in France. Particular
attention is also being paid to monitoring the epidemic among people under 30. In the UK, initial data suggest that the new variants have contributed to an increase in incidence within this population.

Emerging variants detected

In the United Kingdom, a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 was detected and reported to the WHO on December 14, 2020. This variant has been named VOC 202012/01, standing for Variant Of Concern, year 2020, month 12, variant 01. Preliminary findings suggest that this variant is more transmissible than the SARS-CoV-2 viruses currently circulating in France, but there is currently no evidence of more severe COVID-19 in infected individuals or of the ability to evade the immune response.

In South Africa, the emergence of another variant designated 501.V2 was reported on December 18, 2020; this variant also exhibits several variations in the genes encoding the spike protein, including a mutation also present in the British variant. Preliminary studies suggest that this variant may also be more transmissible, but there is currently no evidence of more severe forms of the infection.

Continue to follow safety precautions as the vaccination campaign begins

While the vaccination campaign began on December 27, 2020, it has intensified since January 4, 2021. Initially targeting primarily residents of nursing homes and certain staff members at these facilities, the expansion of the vaccination targets is currently underway. The rollout of vaccines across all regions is also underway to increase vaccination coverage among the target population.

In light of a potential resurgence of the epidemic linked to the end-of-year holidays and the identification of emerging variants, maintaining individual preventive measures and reducing physical contact is essential to protect people vulnerable to COVID-19, in addition to the vaccination campaign. These measures, combined with collective measures, are currently the primary means of curbing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and reducing its impact on the healthcare system and mortality rates.

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