The primary objective of cancer incidence and mortality projections is to estimate, in the very short term, the expected number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths at the national level. These 2017 projections were produced using incidence data observed through 2013 in the departments covered by a cancer registry in the Francim network, as well as mortality data from the Center for Epidemiology on Medical Causes of Death (Inserm-CépiDc). For each cancer site, trends were projected for the period 2013–2017.

KEY FINDINGS

400,000 new cancer cases in 2017

• For 2017, the study estimates the number of new cancer cases at 400,000: nearly 54% in men (214,000) and 46% in women (186,000).

• Among men, new cancer cases continue to be predominantly represented by: prostate cancer (48,400 estimated new cases in 2013, no projection available for 2017); lung cancer, the second most common cancer (32,300 new cases in 2017); and colorectal cancer (24,000 new cases).

• Among women, breast cancer remains by far the most common (59,000 new cases), ahead of colorectal cancer (20,800 new cases) and lung cancer (16,800 new cases).

150,000 cancer deaths in 2017

• The estimated number of cancer deaths is 150,000: 56% among men (84,000 deaths) and 44% among women (66,000 deaths).

• Among men, lung cancer (20,800 deaths), colorectal cancer (9,300 deaths), and prostate cancer (8,200 deaths) account for the highest number of deaths. Liver cancer, for which mortality projections are being published for the first time, is the fourth leading cause of cancer death among men (6,100 deaths).

• Among women, two cancers account for one-third of cancer deaths: breast cancer (11,900 deaths) and lung cancer (10,200 deaths). Colorectal cancer (8,400 deaths) and ovarian cancer (3,100 deaths) rank third and fourth, respectively.

Lung cancer on track to become the leading cause of cancer mortality among women

These new projections show that lung cancer mortality among women is increasingly approaching breast cancer mortality.

Trends in the number of deaths (bars) and age-standardized mortality rates (curves, logarithmic scale) from lung and breast cancer among women, 1997–2017, in metropolitan France

These projections should not be interpreted as observed reality: they merely reflect the assumptions made and cannot, therefore, be used to reconstruct temporal trends. Only the estimation and trend studies, conducted every 5 years, allow for this. The next ones will be published in 2019.

See also:

• Incidence and Mortality Reports 1980–2012: Solid Tumors and Malignant Hematological Diseases

• Incidence and Mortality Projections from the

• Cancer Report