Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Metropolitan France in 2017
Objective: Cancer incidence and mortality projections provide estimates of the expected number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths at the national level for the current year. This biannual publication enables a responsive approach to addressing the population’s needs regarding cancer care. This work aligns with Objective 15 of the 2014–2019 Cancer Plan: “Support public policies with robust and shared data.” Method: The projections are derived from statistical modeling based on incidence data collected by the cancer registries of the Francim network and mortality data provided by the Center for Epidemiology on Medical Causes of Death/National Institute of Health and Medical Research (CépiDc, Inserm) for the period 1975–2013. Three scenarios for changes in incidence and mortality between 2013 and 2017 were considered: A continuation of the recent trend, B a constant rate since 2013, and C a continuation of the average trend from 1980 to 2013. Scenario A is preferred a priori, but for certain cancers, epidemiological evidence may lead to the selection of a different scenario: the choice of scenario is then explained in the commentary. Nineteen solid tumor sites were analyzed. For incidence, scenario A was selected for all sites except for laryngeal cancer in women, where scenario C favored a continued increase in incidence. For prostate cancer, given the uncertainty regarding the very short-term trend in incidence, only the 2013 estimate is reported. Scenario A was selected for mortality projections for all sites except for the liver (Scenario B) and the central nervous system (Scenario C). The “all cancers” projections include estimates for malignant hematological diseases, although these are not presented in this report. Results: In 2017, the number of new cancer cases in metropolitan France is estimated at 214,000 among men and 185,500 among women, corresponding to standardized rates (world population) of 353.2 and 284.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The number of deaths is estimated at 84,000 among men and 66,000 among women, corresponding to 119.2 and 71.7 deaths per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Among men, prostate cancer (regardless of the scenario considered for this cancer), lung cancer, and colorectal cancer are the most common in terms of new cancer cases. Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer deaths, ahead of colorectal and prostate cancers. Deaths from liver cancer rank fourth. In women, breast, colorectal, and lung cancers remain the most common. Breast cancer ranks first in the number of cancer deaths, but it is closely followed by lung cancer, ahead of colorectal cancer.
Author(s): Jehannin Ligier K, Molinie F, Defossez G, Daubisse Marliac L, Dantony E, Uhry Z, Remontet L, Bossard N
Publishing year: 2017
Pages: 80 p.
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