Prior to July 10, 2016, men who have sex with men (MSM) were permanently excluded from donating blood. Since that date, they have been eligible to donate blood if they have not engaged in sex with another man in the 12 months preceding the donation. To consider a further reduction in the deferral period, an assessment of residual HIV risk (RR) was conducted for two scenarios: S1—deferral if sexual intercourse between men within the past four months; S2—deferral if multiple sexual partners within the past four months (as for other donors). The baseline HIV RR was estimated for the period July 2016–December 2017. The impact of the two scenarios on this RR was assessed using three surveys (Public Health France Barometer 2016, Rapport au sexe Survey 2017, and Complidon) to estimate (i) the number of additional MSM likely to donate blood in each scenario and (ii) the incidence of HIV among these donors. The baseline RR was estimated at 1 per 6,380,000 donations. For S1, over 18 months, the number of additional MSM donors was estimated at 733 and the number of additional HIV-positive donations at 0.09, resulting in an RR of 1 per 6,300,000. For S2, these numbers were estimated at 3,102 and 3.92, respectively, and the RR at 1 per 4,300,000 donations. The sensitivity analysis showed that the RR would be at most 1 per 6,225,000 donations for S1 and 1 per 3,000,000 for S2. In both scenarios, the HIV RR remains very low. For S1, it is identical to the reference RR. For S2, it is 1.5 times higher, and the sensitivity analysis shows that this estimate is less robust than for S1. In July 2019, the Minister of Health opted for the first scenario, which will be implemented on April 2, 2020.