Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Metropolitan France in 2015. Technical Report
Objective: Cancer incidence and mortality projections provide estimates of the expected number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths at the national level for the current year. The publication of these projections, updated every two years, is part of Objective 15 of the 2014–2019 Cancer Plan: “Support public policies with robust, shared data”. Method: The projections are derived from statistical modeling based on incidence data collected by the cancer registries of the Francim network and mortality data provided by the Center for Epidemiology on Medical Causes of Death at the National Institute of Health and Medical Research (CépiDc, Inserm) for the period 1975–2011. These projections are based on assumptions (scenarios) regarding trends in incidence and mortality between 2011 and 2015. Three scenarios were considered: A continuation of the recent trend, B a constant rate since 2011, and C a continuation of the average trend from 1980 to 2011. Nineteen solid tumor sites were analyzed. For incidence, scenario A was selected for most sites: lip-oral cavity-pharynx, esophagus, stomach, colon-rectum, liver, larynx (in men), lung, skin melanoma, cervix, uterine body, ovary, testis, bladder, kidney, central nervous system, and thyroid. Scenario B was preferred for breast cancer, for which the latest incidence data, supported by international results, suggest a stabilization of the rate. This scenario was also applied to pancreatic cancer, for which the fairly specific increase in incidence in France makes projections difficult and requires them to be interpreted with caution. Scenario C was selected for laryngeal cancer in women, as the assumption of an increase in incidence is the most likely. For prostate cancer, given the uncertainty regarding the very short-term trend in incidence, only the 2011 estimate is reported. Scenario A was systematically used for mortality projections. Finally, the “all cancers” projections include, in addition to the site-specific projections, estimates for malignant hematological diseases, although these are not presented in this report. Results: In 2015, the number of new cancer cases in metropolitan France is estimated at 210,882 among men and 173,560 among women, corresponding to standardized rates (based on the global population) of 362.4 and 272.6 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The number of cancer deaths is estimated at 84,041 among men and 65,415 among women, corresponding to rates of 124.0 and 72.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively.
Author(s): Leone N, Voirin N, Roche L, Binder Foucard F, Woronoff AS, Delafosse P, Remontet L, Bossard N, Uhry Z
Publishing year: 2015
Pages: 62 p.
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