Introduction: The price of tobacco products is a key determinant of consumption. The government sets taxes but does not set prices. It is therefore important to examine tobacco tax policy in relation to changes in prices and sales. Methods: Description of trends in tobacco prices and taxation in France. Analysis of the relationship between annual changes in sales and price, i.e., the price elasticity of demand. Results: Tobacco tax policy in France was erratic from 2004 to September 2017. The policy announced for 2017–2020 is ambitious, but the parameters used to estimate its consequences are optimistic. The government forecasts an elasticity of -0.75 (-0.85 in Corsica), whereas the elasticity observed in the past has never been lower than -0.5. Furthermore, the government anticipates that tax increases will be fully passed on to the retail price, but past experience shows that the tobacco industry never operates in this manner. Conclusion: it will likely be necessary to strengthen tax policy to reach a price of €10 for 20 cigarettes by the end of 2020 and to continue this policy beyond 2020 if we wish to significantly reduce tobacco consumption.