Summary

Nationally, all-cause mortality in week 2 of 2017 stabilized at a level equivalent to that of the first week and appears to be beginning to decline in week 3. This trend is observed primarily among people aged 65 and older, and particularly among those aged 85 and older (Figures 1–3).Nationally, the observed number of deaths across all age groups is higher than the expected number: - in week 51 (December 19–25, 2016): +12%, - in week 52 (December 26, 2016–January 1, 2017): +21%,- in week 01 of 2017 (January 2–8): +29%,- in week 02 of 2017 (January 9–15): at least +28%.Over the first six weeks of the flu season (weeks 49 through 2), the number of excess deaths from all causes is estimated at 11,400 (data extrapolated for all of France) as of January 31, 2017.

Regionally, the increase in mortality primarily affected the eastern coastal regions, Normandy, and the Île-de-France region in week 51, before spreading to the entire metropolitan territory during the first two weeks of 2017 (Figure 4). Thus, a significantly higher observed number of deaths than the expected number was noted: - in week 51, in 6 regions, with an excess of +12% to 17% in the Normandy, Grand-Est, and Île-de-France regions and of 18% to 23% in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, PACA, and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes; - in week 52, in 10 regions (all except Centre, Corsica, and Pays de la Loire), with a more pronounced excess in the regions along the eastern coast (of at least +26% depending on the region); ,- in the first week of 2017, in 12 regions (all regions except Corsica), with an excess of at least +30% in the four regions along the eastern coast and Occitanie (exceeding 40% in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté).- During the second week of 2017 (all regions), with an excess of at least +36% in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est, Occitanie, and Corsica regions.In the third week of 2017, a decline appears to be beginning in most metropolitan regions, but the numbers remain significantly higher than expected in 10 regions. Since mortality data have not yet been consolidated due to the usual reporting delays, these observations constitute initial estimates, both at the national and regional levels, which will evolve as consolidation proceeds.

At the European level, among the countries participating in the EuroMomo network (www.euromomo.eu), an increase in mortality is also observed in Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Greece, and to a lesser extent in Switzerland (Figure 5).

According to data from electronic certification, during the fourth week of 2017 (January 23–29, 2017), 1,625 deaths were recorded (Figure 6).