Summary

Nationwide, all-cause mortality in Week 4 of 2017 stabilized, following a decline observed in Week 3, at a level that remains significantly higher than expected. This trend is observed primarily among people aged 65 and older, and particularly among those aged 85 and older (Figures 1–3).Nationally, the observed number of deaths across all age groups is higher than the expected number: - in Week 51 (December 19–25, 2016): +12%, - in Week 52 (December 26, 2016–January 1, 2017): +21%,- in week 01 of 2017 (January 2–8): +30%,- in week 02 of 2017 (January 9–15): at least +30%,- in week 03 of 2017 (January 16–22): at least +22%. Over the first seven weeks of the flu epidemic (weeks 49 through 3), the number of excess deaths from all causes is estimated at 14,300 (data extrapolated for all of France) as of February 7, 2017.

Regionally, the increase in mortality affected the entire metropolitan territory (Figure 4). Mortality declined starting in week 3 in most regions, except 1) in PACA (stable at a high level) and 2) in the regions along the western coast and in Occitanie (stabilization, or even a resurgence in week 4 after a decline in week 3).Thus, a significantly higher observed number of deaths than the expected number was noted: - in Week 51, in 6 regions, with an excess ranging from +12% to 23% depending on the region; - in Week 52, in 10 regions (all except Centre, Corsica, and Pays de la Loire), with a more pronounced excess in the regions along the eastern coast, ranging from +12% to 38%, - in the first week of 2017, in 12 regions (all regions except Corsica), with an excess ranging from +16% to 48%, - during the second week of 2017 in all 13 regions, with an excess of at least +38% in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est, Occitanie, and Corsica, in the third week of 2017, across 12 regions (all except Centre-Val-de-Loire), with excesses of at least 29% in PACA, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grand-Est, and Corsica.

Since mortality data have not yet been consolidated due to the usual reporting delays, these observations constitute initial estimates, both at the national and regional levels, which will evolve as consolidation proceeds.

At the European level, among the countries participating in the EuroMomo network (www.euromomo.eu), an increase in mortality is also observed in Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Greece, and to a lesser extent in Switzerland and the Netherlands (Figure 5).

Based on data from electronic certification, during the 5th week of 2017 (January 30 to February 5, 2017), 1,610 deaths were recorded (Figure 6).