Summary

At the national level, the observed decline in all-cause mortality continued in Week 7 of 2017. The observed figures appear to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation around the expected number of deaths, both for all ages and for people aged 65–84. Mortality among people aged 85 and older remains significantly higher than expected, at the threshold (Figures 1–3).Nationally, the observed number of deaths across all age groups is higher than the expected number: - in Week 51 (December 19–25, 2016): +12%, - in Week 52 (December 26, 2016–January 1, 2017): +21%,- in week 01 of 2017 (January 2–8): +30%,- in week 02 of 2017 (January 9–15): +30%,- in week 03 of 2017 (January 16–22): up 23% in week 4 of 2017 (January 23–29): up 24% in week 5 of 2017 (January 30–February 5): at least 19% in week 6 of 2017 (February 6–12): at least 12%.

Over the first ten weeks of the influenza epidemic (weeks 49 through 6), the number of excess deaths from all causes is estimated at 21,000 (data extrapolated for all of France) as of February 28, 2017. Regionally (Figure 4), the decline in mortality also continued in the regions during week 7. Mortality observed during this week appears to be returning to the usual range of fluctuation in all regions. A significantly higher number of observed deaths than expected is noted: - in week 51, in 6 regions, with an excess ranging from +12% to +23% depending on the region, - in week 52, in 10 regions (all except Centre, Corsica, and Pays de la Loire), with a more pronounced excess in the regions along the eastern coast, ranging from +12% to +38%, - in week 01-2017, in 12 regions (all regions except Corsica), with an excess ranging from +16% to +48%, - in week 02-2017 in all 13 regions, with an excess of at least +38% in the regions of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Burgundy-Franche-Comté, Grand Est, Occitanie, and Corsica; in week 03-2017, across 12 regions (all except Centre-Val-de-Loire), with excesses of at least 29% in PACA, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grand-Est, and Corsica; - during week 04-2017, in all 13 regions, with an excess exceeding +39% in PACA and Corsica and ranging from at least +13% to +27% in the other regions;- During week 05-2017, in 12 regions (all except Corsica), with an excess exceeding +30% in Grand Est and at least +14% to +23% in the 11 other regions. - During week 06-2017, in 8 regions (all except Hauts-de-France, Île-de-France, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, PACA, and Corsica), with excesses ranging from at least +12% to +22% depending on the region.

Since mortality data have not yet been consolidated due to the usual reporting delays, these observations represent initial estimates, both at the national and regional levels, which will evolve as consolidation proceeds.

At the European level, among the countries participating in the EuroMomo network (www.euromomo.eu), the decline in mortality is also continuing, and a return to the usual fluctuation ranges appears to be emerging for all countries, although the data still needs to be consolidated in the coming weeks (Figure 5).

Based on data from electronic certification, 1,404 deaths were recorded during week 8 of 2017 (February 20–26, 2017) (Figure 6).