Summary

Nationwide, the decline in all-cause mortality observed since Week 5 continued into Week 6 of 2017, but the observed numbers remain significantly higher than expected. The decrease in mortality is observed among people aged 65 and older, who have been the hardest hit in recent weeks (Figures 1–3). Nationally, the observed number of deaths across all age groups is higher than the expected number: - in Week 51 (December 19–25, 2016): +12%, - in Week 52 (December 26, 2016–January 1, 2017): +21%,- in week 01 of 2017 (January 2–8): +30%,- in week 02 of 2017 (January 9–15): +30%,- in week 03 of 2017 (January 16–22): +23% in week 4 of 2017 (January 23–29): at least +23% in week 5 of 2017 (January 30–February 5): at least +18%

Over the first nine weeks of the flu season (weeks 49 through 5), the number of excess deaths from all causes is estimated at 19,400 (data extrapolated for all of France) as of February 21, 2017.By region (Figure 4), the decline in mortality began in all regions during week 6, with the exception of the Centre-Val-de-Loire region, which shows numbers that remain stable compared to previous weeks. A significantly higher number of observed deaths than expected is noted: - in Week 51, in 6 regions, with an excess ranging from +12% to +23% depending on the region; - in Week 52, in 10 regions (all except Centre, Corsica, and Pays de la Loire), with a more pronounced excess in the regions along the eastern coast, ranging from +12% to +38%, - in week 01-2017, in 12 regions (all regions except Corsica), with an excess ranging from +16% to 48%, - in week 02-2017 in all 13 regions, with an excess of at least +38% in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Burgundy-Franche-Comté, Grand Est, Occitanie, and Corsica, during week 03-2017, in 12 regions (all except Centre-Val-de-Loire), with excesses of at least 29% in PACA, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grand-Est, and Corsica; - during week 04-2017, in all 13 regions, with excesses exceeding +39% in PACA and Corsica and ranging from at least +13% to +27% in the other regions;- During week 05-2017, in 11 regions (all except Pays de la Loire and Corsica), with excesses exceeding +30% in Grand Est and ranging from at least +13% to +23% in the other 10 regions.

Since mortality data have not yet been consolidated due to the usual reporting delays, these observations constitute initial estimates, both at the national and regional levels, which will evolve as consolidation proceeds.

At the European level, among the countries participating in the EuroMomo network (www.euromomo.eu), a marked increase in mortality was noted in late 2016–early 2017 in Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Greece, and to a lesser extent in Switzerland and the Netherlands. During the second half of January, a decrease was observed in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (Figure 5).

According to data from electronic certification, during week 7 of 2017 (February 13–19, 2017), 1,417 deaths were recorded (Figure 6).