Summary

Nationwide, all-cause mortality in week 5 of 2017 decreased, following a stabilization observed in week 4. The observed numbers remain at a level that is still significantly higher than expected. This decrease is observed among people aged 65 and older, who have been the most affected by the rise in mortality over the past few weeks (Figures 1–3). Nationally, the observed number of deaths across all age groups exceeds the expected number: - in week 51 (December 19–25, 2016): +12%, - in week 52 (December 26, 2016–January 1, 2017): +21%,- in week 01 of 2017 (January 2–8): +30%,- in week 02 of 2017 (January 9–15): +30%,- in week 03 of 2017 (January 16–22): at least +22% in week 4 of 2017 (January 23–28): at least +22%.

Over the first eight weeks of the flu season (weeks 49 through 4), the number of excess deaths from all causes is estimated at 17,000 (data extrapolated for all of France) as of February 14, 2017. Regionally, the increase in mortality affected the entire metropolitan territory (Figure 4). Mortality decreased in nearly all regions during week 5 (including in PACA, where mortality had been rising through week 4), but remained stable compared to week 4 in Grand-Est, Brittany, Hauts-de-France, and Centre-Val de Loire.A significantly higher number of observed deaths than expected is noted: - in Week 51, in 6 regions, with an excess ranging from +12% to 23% depending on the region, - in Week 52, in 10 regions (all except Centre, Corsica, and Pays de la Loire), with a more pronounced excess in the regions along the eastern coast, ranging from +12% to 38%, - in the first week of 2017, in 12 regions (all regions except Corsica), with an excess ranging from +16% to 48%, - during the second week of 2017 in all 13 regions, with an excess of at least +38% in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est, Occitanie, and Corsica, in the third week of 2017, across 12 regions (all except Centre-Val-de-Loire), with excesses of at least 29% in PACA, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grand-Est, and Corsica; - in the fourth week of 2017, across all 13 regions, with excesses exceeding +37% in PACA and Corsica and ranging from at least +11% to +28% in the other regions.

Since mortality data have not yet been consolidated due to the usual reporting delays, these observations constitute initial estimates, both at the national and regional levels, which will evolve as consolidation proceeds.

At the European level, among the countries participating in the EuroMomo network (www.euromomo.eu), a sharp increase in mortality was noted in late 2016–early 2017 in Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Greece, and to a lesser extent in Switzerland and the Netherlands. During the second half of January, a decrease was observed in Greece, Italy, and Spain. In Portugal, after a slight decrease, mortality has stabilized at a high level (Figure 5).

According to data from electronic certification, during the 6th week of 2017 (February 6–12, 2017), 1,500 deaths were recorded (Figure 6).