Key Points

• The number of deaths is significantly higher than expected between weeks S40-2020 and S11-2021 at the national level.

• The number of deaths is higher than expected, specifically among people aged 65–84, through week 12, while it has returned to within the usual range of fluctuation since week 09 among those aged 85 and older.

• In week 12, excess deaths from all causes were observed in 2 regions and 6 metropolitan departments.

Summary

Nationally

The number of deaths recorded by civil registry offices has been significantly higher than expected from week 40 of 2020 through week 11 of 2021, a span of 25 consecutive weeks. After a decline observed from week 04 until returning to the upper limit of the usual fluctuation range in weeks 09 and 10, mortality began to rise again in week 11. The estimated excess for the first ten weeks of 2021 ranges from +7% to +22%. In week 12, the number of deaths appears to be decreasing but remains at the upper limit of the usual fluctuation range. The trend in week 12 should be interpreted with caution, as data completeness is lower than usual due to the April 5 holiday.

Based on electronic death certificates, 4,208 deaths were recorded in week 13, an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous week (i.e., +143 deaths).

Based on civil registry data, deaths among those aged 65–84 remained significantly higher than expected through Week 12, while the number of deaths among those aged 85 and older returned to the usual range of fluctuation as early as Week 09. Deaths certified electronically in week 13 increased by 6% among people aged 65–84 and remained stable among those aged 85 and older.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths in week 13 increased by 5% in public hospitals (+140 deaths) and in nursing homes/retirement homes (+5.5%, or +17 deaths).

At the regional level

In mainland France, the number of deaths from all causes remains significantly higher than expected through week 12 in Hauts-de-France and Île-de-France. A further increase in the number of deaths was observed in Week 11, particularly in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and, to a lesser extent, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grand-Est, and Normandy. In Week 12, the numbers in these regions appear to be decreasing, but these trends remain to be confirmed as data is consolidated.

Overall, the number of deaths remains significantly higher than expected in two regions during week 12 (Hauts-de-France and Île-de-France) and in six departments.

Based on electronic certification, the number of deaths increased in Week 13 in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (+15%, or +60 deaths), Normandy (+25%, or +50 deaths), Hauts-de-France (+11%, or +27 deaths), Occitanie (+7%, or 30 more deaths), and Pays-de-la-Loire (+19%, or 16 more deaths). In Réunion, the number of deaths decreased by 31% (-16 deaths).