Key Points

In the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, viral circulation indicators continued to rise in Week 40 (September 28 to October 4, 2020) at a faster rate than in Week 39. The incidence rate has increased by 15% (+10% in Week 39), while the testing rate has decreased slightly (-2% in Week 40 versus -12% in Week 39). The positivity rate continues to rise, exceeding 10%. Among confirmed cases, the most represented age group remains those aged 20–30 (25%), followed by those aged 10–20 (16%). The increase in the incidence rate, however, affects all age groups. The proportion of symptomatic individuals among those tested and confirmed cases dropped significantly in Week 40. With the exception of the Rhône department, where the incidence rate has fallen, all departments are recording an increase in their incidence rates, notably the Ardèche, the Drôme, the Loire—which now has the highest rate in the region—the Haute-Loire, and the Puy-de-Dôme. At the metropolitan level, these indicators of viral circulation are rising in Clermont-Ferrand and especially in Saint-Étienne, while they remain stable in Grenoble and Lyon, where a decline appears to be beginning. However, they are increasing among those aged 65 and older in all four metropolitan areas except Lyon.

Hospital indicators are stabilizing at the regional level, with the number of emergency room visits for suspected COVID-19 remaining stable and, notably, a slight decrease in new hospitalizations during week 40 at the regional level. Admissions to intensive care and hospital deaths are increasing, but at a much lower rate than the previous week. At the departmental level, new hospitalizations have risen in the Loire, Drôme, Savoie, and Haute-Savoie.

The situation remains concerning in nursing homes, even though the number of reported cases appears to be declining, as the number of active clusters in nursing homes remains high. Clusters in higher education institutions are still numerous.

For the first time since late April, a significant excess mortality from all causes was observed in week 38 at the regional level across all age groups and among those aged 65 and older, and in the Rhône department for those aged 65 and older. In week 39, the Loire department recorded excess mortality from all causes among those aged 65 and older.

All indicators show that the departments of Loire, Rhône, and Isère remain the hardest hit by the epidemic. Loire and Rhône are among the five metropolitan departments with the highest incidence rates, with Loire ranking second after Paris.