Key Points

• In Week 51 (December 14–20, 2020), SARS-CoV-2 virological surveillance indicators were significantly influenced by the large-scale testing campaigns targeting the general population organized in the region. These campaigns led to a threefold increase in the testing rate, a halving of the positivity rate, and a comparatively moderate rise in the incidence of confirmed cases (+42%). These trends apply to all departments, all of which have an incidence exceeding 200 per 100,000. The number of confirmed cases is also rising in healthcare facilities. The sharp increase in the proportion of asymptomatic individuals tested (87%) and the significant rise in the use of antigen tests (42%) also attest to the predominance of a screening approach over a diagnostic one. In this context, the actual trend in viral circulation is difficult to interpret. However, with 238 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region remains among the regions with the highest viral circulation in France, alongside the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Grand-Est regions.

• In week 51, indicators of healthcare utilization are trending toward stabilization. SOS Médecins calls are down slightly, while emergency room visits have increased slightly.

• The slow decline in the number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 continues. On December 22, there were still 4,200 people hospitalized (-5%), including 434 in intensive care (-10%). After declining since early November, the number of new hospitalizations appears to be stabilizing for the first time in week 51 (+2%). The number of new ICU admissions, after stabilizing in week 50, decreased in week 51 (-10%). At the departmental level, new hospitalizations are increasing in half of the departments and decreasing in the other six. The weekly hospitalization rate for COVID-19 patients in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (16.9/100,000) remains higher than the national rate (12.9/100,000). At the departmental level, the highest rates are found in Allier, Savoie, and Isère.

• The decline in the number of new COVID-19-related deaths continues in healthcare facilities (-15%) and long-term care facilities (-16%). In week 50, a significant excess mortality from all causes, still at a very high level, was recorded in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. Significant excess mortality has been observed in the region for 10 consecutive weeks.

• Overall, the ongoing mass testing campaigns make it difficult to interpret the current trend of the epidemic. However, the stabilization of healthcare utilization indicators suggests that the epidemic is no longer declining. It remains at a high level in all departments, a situation conducive to a resurgence of the epidemic if the utmost caution is not exercised during this holiday season.