COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for November 19: Second Wave Has Peaked, but Indicators Remain at High Levels

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Published on 20 November 2020

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Published weekly, the epidemiological update on COVID-19 surveillance provides a detailed analysis of the various indicators established by Santé publique France and its network of partners to track the progression of the epidemic and guide public policy decisions. In week 46, the indicators confirm a decline in SARS-CoV-2 circulation, with simultaneous decreases in the number of new confirmed cases (-40%), hospitalizations (-13%), and intensive care admissions (-9%). Although the indicators remain at high levels, these trends suggest that the peak of the second wave has passed.

Encouraging decline in indicators, which remain at high levels

In week 46, indicators tracking the COVID-19 epidemic show a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 circulation in mainland France. 182,783 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed by RT-PCR and antigen tests in week 46, compared to 305,135 in week 45, representing a decrease of 40%. The SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate based on RT-PCR tests fell by 3.5 percentage points (16.2% in Week 46, 19.7% in Week 45).
This decline is also evident in hospitals, with a decrease in COVID-19 hospitalizations for the first time in Week 46 (-13%; 17,390 hospitalizations compared to 19,940 in week 45) and in new ICU admissions (-9%, with 2,761 in week 46 versus 3,037 in week 45). Finally, the number of deaths appears to be stabilizing for the first time in week 46 after several weeks of increases (3,756 in week 46 compared to 3,817 in week 45, representing a decrease of 2%). The observed decline in all indicators suggests that the peak of the second wave has been passed.

With the peak passed, maintaining preventive measures remains essential

Regarding the impact of containment measures, current results show a clear decrease in all indicators, most pronounced in the major cities that were first placed under curfew and had previously implemented enhanced measures. The time lag between the implementation of the first curfew and the reversal of the trend about ten days later supports the notion of a direct effect of the measures.
These encouraging results regarding the evolution of the epidemic should not obscure the fact that, pending the availability of treatments and vaccines, the only means to curb the epidemic and reduce its impact on the healthcare system and mortality rates remain the adoption of individual preventive measures, combined with collective measures.

Antigen Tests: Where Do We Stand?

The use of antigen tests began on October 17, with a broader rollout starting on November 16. Data on diagnoses made using antigen tests conducted outside medical laboratories (TROD) have been reported to the Contact COVID database since the tests were first used and integrated into the SI-DEP tool as of noon on November 16, 2020. The Contact COVID database, maintained by the National Health Insurance, is therefore the data source used in this epidemiological update for Week 46 to report cases diagnosed by these tests.

Since November 12, the weekly epidemiological reports have included the first reports of antigen test results. Thus, the estimate of the number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in France takes into account patients confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 via RT-PCR testing (source: SI-DEP) and antigen testing (source: Contact COVID), allowing for an estimate of the total number.

In addition, the number of patients confirmed positive by antigen tests has been reported daily on the Santé publique France dashboard since November 17.

Since the start of the epidemic, the implementation by Santé publique France of multi-source surveillance has made it possible to track the dynamics of the epidemic and assess its progression.

Before making the data available as open data on Géodes, Santé publique France must verify and analyze the quality of the data reported to the SI-DEP system. And, if necessary, make the corrections required for the system to function properly.

Santé publique France guarantees the quality of the data it produces. Every effort is being made to ensure the system is operational by the end of the month, with retroactive coverage of antigen test results dating back to November 16.