Background: Since July 10, 2016, men who have sex with men (MSM) have been eligible to donate blood provided they have not engaged in such sexual activity during the 12 months prior to donation. Since this change has had no impact on the residual risk (RR) of HIV transmission through transfusion, the Ministry of Health is considering further expanding blood donation eligibility for MSM. To guide its decision, the Ministry asked Santé publique France to conduct analyses of the residual risk of HIV for the following two scenarios: deferral of men who have had sex with men in the 4 months prior to donation; deferral of MSM who have had more than one sexual partner in the 4 months prior to donation. Objectives: We estimated the HIV-related RR for the two 18-month periods before and after July 10, 2016, and then the proportion of this RR attributable to MSM in each period. We then assessed, based on the estimated HIV incidence and RR for the second period, the impact of the two alternative scenarios on this RR. Methods: The HIV-related RR depends on the window period (WP) and is estimated using the following equation: RR = I * (WP/365), where I is the HIV incidence rate derived from the recent infection test. This test allows us to estimate, among donors who test HIV-positive, the number of recent infections (dating back less than 6 months on average). To measure the impact of donations from MSM donors on the current RR, HIV incidence was estimated, on the one hand, among MSM blood donors, and on the other hand, among other donors. The assessment of the impact of the two scenarios for deferring MSM on the HIV RR is based, on the one hand, on data from three surveys (2016 Health Barometer, 2017 Sex Report Survey, and Complidon) to estimate the number of men who, depending on the scenario selected, would be eligible to donate blood, and on estimates of HIV incidence among these additional donors. In the first scenario, the incidence is that estimated among blood donors under the current criteria (12-month deferral). In the second scenario, it was derived from an estimate of HIV incidence among MSM with a single sexual partner in the general population. Uncertainty (Bayesian method) and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of the assumptions made for each scenario and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Results/Conclusion: The HIV RR, used as a reference to assess a potential increased risk associated with a broader opening of blood donation to MSM, was estimated at 1 per 6,380,000 donations [95% CI: 1 / 24,300,000–1/2,900,000] over the period from July 10, 2016, to December 31, 2017. In the first scenario (shortening the deferral period for MSM from 12 months—the current criterion—to 4 months), the HIV RR was estimated at 1 per 6,300,000 donations [95% CI: 1 / 23,700,000 - 1 / 2,900,000], a risk that does not differ from the reference RR. Sensitivity analysis shows that this estimate is robust to variations in model parameters. In the second scenario, which involves deferring MSM who have had more than one sexual partner in the 4 months prior to donation (a criterion equivalent to that for other donors), the HIV RR was estimated at 1 per 4,300,000 donations [95% CI: 1 / 18,900,000 - 1 / 1,800,000], or 1.5 times the central value of the reference RR. The sensitivity analysis shows that this estimate is less robust than in the first scenario, since the maximum risk would be 1 in 3,000,000 donations, or approximately twice as high as the central value of the reference RR.