The Role of Epidemic Modeling in Public Health Decision-Making: The Case of the Influenza Pandemic

With the threat of an influenza pandemic, preparedness efforts have intensified worldwide, and several teams have modeled the impact of control measures on an influenza pandemic. We reviewed the modeling studies conducted since 2003 and discussed the contribution of this research to public health decisions in France. These studies have shown that, under certain conditions, it is possible to stop a pandemic at its source. If this failed, it was possible to stop an emerging outbreak originating from imported cases within a community; however, the quantity of antivirals required would quickly become prohibitive if the number of outbreaks increased. The use of antivirals, whether for prevention or treatment, during a pandemic would reduce both the number of hospitalizations and the incidence of the disease. Finally, while certain measures implemented alone could control a pandemic as long as the reproduction number is moderate, a combination of measures would become the only way to control it for higher reproduction numbers. The results of the models have been taken into account on several occasions in recommendations for the use of antivirals in France.

Author(s): Bonmarin I, Levy Bruhl D

Publishing year: 2007

Pages: S204-9

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