Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days" minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.
Auteur : Wu Yao, Wen Bo, Li Shanshan, Gasparrini Antonio, Tong Shilu, Overcenco Ala, Urban Ales, Schneider Alexandra, Entezari Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana Maria, Zanobetti Antonella, Analitis Antonis, Zeka Ariana, Tobias Aurelio, Alahmad Barrak, Armstrong Ben, Forsberg Bertil, Íñiguez Carmen, Ameling Caroline, De la Cruz Valencia César, Åström Christofer, Houthuijs Danny, Van Dung Do, Royé Dominic, Indermitte Ene, Lavigne Eric, Mayvaneh Fatemeh, Acquaotta Fiorella, de'Donato Francesca, Sera Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar Gabriel, Kan Haidong, Orru Hans, Kim Ho, Holobaca Iulian-Horia, Kyselý Jan, Madureira Joana, Schwartz Joel, Katsouyanni Klea, Hurtado-Diaz Magali, Ragettli Martina S, Hashizume Masahiro, Pascal Mathilde, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho Micheline, Scovronick Noah, Michelozzi Paola, Goodman Patrick, Nascimento Saldiva Paulo Hilario, Abrutzky Rosana, Osorio Samuel, Dang Tran Ngoc, Colistro Valentina, Huber Veronika, Lee Whanhee, Seposo Xerxes, Honda Yasushi, Bell Michelle L, Guo Yuming
Innovation (New York, N.Y.), 2022, vol. 3, n°. 2, p. 100225
