COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for July 29, 2021. A sharp deterioration in all epidemiological indicators: the summer season calls for increased vigilance

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In week 29 (July 19–25, 2021), the epidemiological situation continued to deteriorate, with a sharp increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

The number of new cases was nearly twice as high as the previous week across all age groups, with an incidence rate exceeding 600 per 100,000 people among those aged 20–29. The increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is now also evident in hospitals. Contact tracing data confirmed a sharp rise in the number of cases who had visited gathering places, particularly bars and nightclubs, where protective measures are difficult to maintain. As of July 27, 2021, more than 60% of the population had received at least one dose of the vaccine, and more than 50% were fully vaccinated.

Against a backdrop of a significant increase in viral transmission, widespread circulation of the Delta variant, and summer vacations, vaccination of all eligible individuals—particularly those in contact with vulnerable people—must be strongly encouraged and promoted to achieve a sufficient level of herd immunity and prevent further strain on hospitals and excess deaths. This must be combined with high adherence to other preventive measures, particularly the observance of protective measures, limiting high-risk contacts, and self-isolation in the event of symptoms, a confirmed infection, or contact with a confirmed case.

After 12 weeks of decline, the number of deaths is rising again

Nationally, an increase in the incidence rate (191/100,000, +94%) is observed across all age groups. It was nearly twice as high as the previous week’s rate across all age groups. The highest rates were observed among those aged 20–29 (613 per 100,000, +97%), 10–19 (290, +85%), and 30–39 (275, +95%). The testing rate increased by 25%. The positivity rate stood at 4.1%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points.

In hospitals, the increase was confirmed for new hospitalizations (+51%) and accelerated for the number of new patients admitted to critical care units (+81%). The number of COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized was 7,196, including 991 in critical care units. COVID-19-related deaths rose again (+22%), following 12 weeks of decline.

In mainland France, the incidence rate continued to rise sharply in all regions. These rates exceeded 200 per 100,000 inhabitants in Nouvelle-Aquitaine (219, +99%), Occitanie (368, +109%), Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (412, +151%), and Corsica (501, +130%). The hospitalization rate increased in most regions and was highest in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and Occitanie. In Corsica, a resurgence in hospitalizations is being observed, though numbers remain low.

In the overseas territories, the highest incidence rate was observed in Martinique (995/100,000, +40%). The incidence rate remained high in Réunion (323, +53%), French Guiana (244, +14%), and Guadeloupe, with a very sharp increase (325, +234%). The highest hospitalization rates were observed in Martinique and French Guiana, and remained high in Guadeloupe and Réunion.

An increase in the number of confirmed cases reported in social and medical-social facilities was observed, with the number of confirmed cases among staff exceeding that observed among residents, given that full vaccination coverage among these professionals was only 60.9%.

The Delta variant is predominant in mainland France, accounting for 82.8% of interpretable sequenced viruses in Flash Survey #14 of July 13.

For more information:

Sharp increase in the number of cases and contacts amid declining adherence to preventive measures

In week 29, the number of cases and contacts recorded in ContactCovid continued to rise sharply (117,267 cases, up 115%, and 205,044 contacts, up 99%). The proportion of cases previously known as contacts (13.7% in Week 29) has more than halved since Week 22. This suggests that a growing proportion of at-risk contacts are not previously identified by the index case and are evading measures to limit transmission. This trend, along with the increase in the proportion of contacts outside the household (64% in Week 29), is consistent with cases regularly frequenting places where adherence to preventive measures is not always possible.

Furthermore, the latest data from the CoviPrev survey (wave 26, July 16–21, 2021) show that adherence to preventive measures is declining compared to the previous survey (wave 25, June 21–28, 2021):

  • 68% of respondents say they always wear a mask in public (-2%)

  • 63% of respondents say they greet others without shaking hands and avoid hugging (-2%)

  • 60% of respondents say they wash their hands regularly (-1%)

  • 32% of respondents avoid gatherings and in-person meetings with loved ones (-4%)

For more information:

Half of the French population is fully vaccinated

As of July 27, 60.7% of the population in France had received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 50.8% were fully vaccinated. Vaccination coverage among people aged 12 and older was 70.4% for one dose and 59.0% for full vaccination. These vaccination rates remained steady at 81.7% (one dose) and 77.3% (full vaccination) among those aged 80 and older.

Weekly Focus: Data on Hospitalizations by Age Group and Date of Admission

In Week 29, the following was observed:

  • A 72% increase in hospitalizations compared to Week 28. This trend was observed across all age groups and appears to have started earlier among those under 70.

  • A 73% increase in admissions to critical care units compared to Week 28, particularly among patients aged 20 and older.

  • A 29% increase in hospital deaths compared to Week 28. Among deceased patients, 83% were over 70 years old, and 16% were between 50 and 69 years old.

In Week 29, in mainland France, despite the data not being finalized, weekly rates of new hospitalizations were increasing in all regions except Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Centre-Val de Loire. Rates of new admissions to intensive care were also rising in all regions, except in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Centre-Val de Loire, and Hauts-de-France. The highest rates of new hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care units were observed in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, Occitanie, and Corsica. Note that case numbers remain low in Corsica.

In the overseas territories, the sharpest increases in new hospitalizations and critical care admissions were observed in Martinique and Guadeloupe. The highest rates were recorded in Martinique and French Guiana, and remained high in Guadeloupe and Réunion.

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29 July 2021

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