Key Points

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes remains the region most affected by this second wave of the pandemic. The spread of the virus finally appears to be slowing, though it remains at a very high level. The health impact is worsening, particularly in nursing homes.

In week 45 (November 2–8), viral transmission appears to be stabilizing overall, with the exception of the Savoie department, which has the highest incidence rate among French departments (>1,100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). At the regional level, the incidence rate
reached at least 842 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (unconsolidated data) and the positivity rate stood at 28.5%. The decline in the number of outpatient visits and the stabilization of emergency room visits also point toward a stabilization of viral circulation.

The number of new hospitalizations continues to rise but at a slower rate (+17% in week 45 versus +39% in week 44). Pressure is mounting on hospitals, which are currently treating more than twice as many COVID-19 patients as at the peak of the first wave. The number of patients in intensive care (833 on 11/11) has exceeded the peak reached in the spring (783 on 4/6). The situation remains critical in nursing homes, with 125 active clusters, including 27 in Savoie, 19 in Ain, and 15 in Isère. More than 3,500 new confirmed cases have been reported among residents and 1,700 among staff. All data sources used to track deaths continue to show a sharp increase in COVID-19-related mortality. The number of deaths among hospitalized patients has
risen by 54% (616 hospital deaths versus 399 deaths in week 44). Deaths in long-term care facilities are also rising significantly (513 in week 45 versus 297 in week 44). Finally, there is a significant excess of all-cause mortality at an exceptional level in week 44 at the
regional level. The maximum weekly number of all-cause deaths during the first wave has been greatly exceeded.