COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for November 26. Monitoring indicators: the decline continues, but levels remain high, calling for continued vigilance.

CP_pe_covid_26112020.pdf

Published on 26 November 2020

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Published weekly, the epidemiological update on COVID-19 surveillance provides a detailed analysis of the various indicators established by Santé publique France and its network of partners to track the progression of the epidemic and inform public policy decisions. In week 47, viral circulation was declining sharply. Nevertheless, the epidemic continues, and indicators remain at high levels. It is therefore essential to continue enforcing measures to limit social contact and to adhere to preventive measures with the utmost care.

Decline in transmission, but mortality remains high

Data collected and analyzed confirm a decrease in the number of new infections and hospitalizations in week 47.

In week 47, the number of new cases confirmed by RT-PCR and antigen tests is estimated at 113,686, marking a 38% decrease compared to week 46 (184,016 new confirmed cases). The number of emergency room visits decreased by 37% (7,540 in week 47 versus 11,954 in week 46). The decline first observed in week 46 in hospital admissions has been confirmed for the second consecutive week. The number of new hospitalizations fell from 17,390 in Week 46 to 13,585 in Week 47, a decrease of 22%. Intensive care admissions, meanwhile, decreased by 25% (2,069 in Week 47 versus 2,761 in Week 46).

The number of new COVID-19-related deaths remains very high in week 47, and more than 50,000 deaths occurring in hospitals and long-term care facilities have been reported since the start of the epidemic in France. An initial downward trend was observed in week 47 but remains to be confirmed in the coming weeks due to the longer consolidation period for mortality data and the later occurrence of death in the course of the disease.

Necessary continuation of “preventive measures”

It is essential to reiterate that the only means currently available to limit the spread of the virus and contain the epidemic are the adoption of individual preventive measures and the reduction of contacts. At the start of the second lockdown (wave 17 of the CoviPrev survey), the systematic adoption of measures related to limiting social interactions had increased very sharply, and this increase applied to all age groups.

Maintaining these measures is now all the more necessary as lockdown restrictions are being eased.

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26 November 2020

COVID-19: Epidemiological Update for November 26, 2020

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The Peak of the Epidemic: What Can We Say?

The natural history of a disease begins with infection, the onset of symptoms, and their potential worsening, which may lead to hospitalization or death. These stages occur at different times.
Generally, new infections or new symptomatic cases are used to determine when the peak of the epidemic has been reached; as they reflect the circulation of the virus in the population earlier than hospitalizations and deaths. As currently observed, the peak in new infections was passed several weeks ago, indicating reduced circulation of the virus in the population, while the number of deaths has not yet shown a downward trend.

What criteria are used to determine that a peak has passed?

The peak of an epidemic can only be determined once it has passed. This is especially true in the context of an emerging epidemic like the coronavirus, for which we have no historical data.
To declare that a peak has passed, epidemiologists rely on observing a clear decrease in indicators for at least two consecutive weeks. During past flu epidemics, fluctuations have been observed—a decline followed by a resurgence—which is why it’s important to be cautious when declaring that the peak has passed.

What does passing the peak mean?

Passing the peak does not mean the end of the epidemic wave, as many new cases will continue to occur during the declining phase. Beyond the current wave, the future course of the epidemic will depend on changes in individual behavior and any new measures that may be implemented (e.g., vaccination).