In week 14 (April 5–11, 2021), epidemiological indicators remained at a very high level, with most indicators stabilizing. A slowdown in viral circulation has been observed, particularly in the departments where stricter restrictions were implemented on March 20 and 27, 2021. Nevertheless, pressure on hospitals continues across the entire metropolitan area, and mortality rates are still rising—a trend expected given the intensity of the epidemic in recent weeks. The regions most affected in Week 14 were Île-de-France, Hauts-de-France, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. In this context, adherence to individual prevention measures, compliance with collective containment measures, and the acceleration of vaccination remain key priorities in addressing the still very high level of viral circulation.

The epidemic is stabilizing at the national level

Nationally, 230,770 new cases were confirmed, averaging nearly 33,000 cases per day. Due to the sharp decline in testing activity (-31%) linked to the Monday holiday in Week 14, the trend in data between Weeks 13 and 14 was not interpretable. Additional analyses were therefore conducted to account for the effect of the holiday on surveillance indicators. Following these adjustments, the incidence rate (408 per 100,000 inhabitants) remained stable (-0.6% compared to Week 13) after four weeks of increase, while the testing rate (4,438 per 100,000 inhabitants) decreased (-18.6%). The positivity rate rose to 9.2% (vs. 7.5% in Week 13).

The Initial Positive Effects of Restrictive Measures

On March 20, 2021, stricter public health restrictions were implemented in 16 departments (Group 1). These measures were expanded to 3 additional departments on March 27 (Group 2) and were extended on April 3, 2021, to all 77 remaining metropolitan departments (Group 3). In Week 14, the estimated incidence rates for the three groups of departments remain at very high levels (481 per 100,000 inhabitants for Group 1, 423 per 100,000 inhabitants for Group 2, and 271 per 100,000 inhabitants for Group 3).

However, in Group 1, the incidence rate of confirmed cases has been declining since the end of Week 13. In Group 2, the incidence rate has been declining since Week 14. The trend in viral circulation in these two groups of departments may reflect the beneficial effects of the stricter restrictions that were implemented specifically in these areas, seven to ten days after their implementation. In Group 3, the incidence rate has stabilized since the end of Week 13.

The evolution of indicators in the coming days will allow us to observe whether this trend is confirmed in Groups 1 and 2, and is beginning in Group 3.

Hospital pressure remains acute and deaths are rising sharply

The weekly hospitalization rate was stable in Week 14, but the number of COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized remained very high, with more than 31,000 people hospitalized as of April 13. The admission rate to critical care units was also stable in Week 14 (+2% compared to Week 13), with the number of patients in these units reaching 5,969 on April 13, 2021.

The number of deaths from all causes and across all age groups remained significantly higher than expected at the national level. The number of COVID-19-related deaths (occurring in hospitals and long-term care facilities) increased in Week 13 (+10%). Between March 1, 2020, and April 13, 2021, 99,508 deaths of COVID-19 patients were reported to Santé publique France.

Flash surveys #5 and #6 confirm the predominance of the 20I/501Y.V1 variant observed through screening

The results obtained in SI-DEP from screening PCR tests indicating a variant of concern show:

• 83% corresponded to a suspected 20I/501Y.V1 variant (which emerged in the United Kingdom)

• 4% corresponded to a suspected 20H/501Y.V2 variant (which emerged in South Africa) or 20J/501Y.V3 variant (which emerged in Brazil)

These variants were detected in all metropolitan regions. The proportion of suspected 20I/501Y.V1 variants was over 80% (among screened positive tests) in 69 metropolitan departments and over 90% in 14 of them.

In Flash Survey #5, conducted on March 16, 2021 (week 11), the 20I/501Y.V1 variant was predominant (81.9% of interpretable sequences); the variants 20H/501Y.V2 and 20J/501Y.V3 were also detected but in smaller proportions (6.8% and 0.3% of interpretable sequences, respectively). Flash Survey #6 was conducted on March 30, 2021 (week 13), and as of April 14, 1,371 results were available, confirming the predominance of the 20I/501Y.V1 variant. Other lineages circulating in the country are also being monitored.

• Learn more: Coronavirus: Circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Flash Survey #7, based on a random sample of specimens, was conducted on April 13, 2021; its results will be reported in an upcoming epidemiological update.

93% of private healthcare professionals will recommend vaccination to their non-at-risk patients

As of April 13, 2021:

• 11,366,175 people have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and 3,982,264 people have received two doses, representing 16.9% and 5.9% of the population in France, respectively

• 98.1% of residents in nursing homes (Ehpad) or long-term care facilities (USLD) have received a first dose of the vaccine, and 75.1% have received two doses.

• 1,512,639 healthcare professionals have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine in France, and 648,124 have received two. It is thus estimated that 68.0% of healthcare professionals have received a first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and 29.2% have received two

1,500 private healthcare professionals were surveyed about vaccination during a survey conducted between March 17 and 29: 57% reported having received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, with the highest proportion among general practitioners (80%). Among those who had not yet received a first dose of the vaccine, 78% indicated they intended to get vaccinated definitely or probably; 93% stated that they would definitely or probably recommend that their patients not at risk of severe COVID-19 (people under 50 without comorbidities) get vaccinated when the time comes.

According to data from the Coviprev study, vaccination appears to be accompanied by a relaxation of preventive measures, even though it is important to maintain them. It remains essential that anyone with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 immediately self-isolate and get tested as soon as possible. The use of digital tools (TousAntiCovid) is recommended to strengthen contact tracing and rapid isolation measures.