Minimum mortality temperature by cause of death and age group: A multi-country observational study (1990-2019)

Published on 15 June 2026 Updated on 10 July 2026

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important feature of temperature-mortality relationship, defined as the temperature at which mortality risk is lowest. Although numerous studies have estimated MMT for all-cause mortality, few have explored differences by age or cause of death. We analyzed daily mean temperature and mortality data from 667 communities across 39 countries. Mortality was classified by age and cause of death (cardiovascular, respiratory, or non-cardiorespiratory). A two-stage meta-analytic approach was applied to estimate the MMT and its corresponding percentile (MMTP) by age and cause of death. In the overall population, MMT was the highest for cardiovascular mortality (22.1 °C, 95% CI: 20.9-23.4 °C), whereas respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes were 0.87 °C and 0.66 °C lower, respectively, than that for cardiovascular causes. Similar patterns were observed for MMTP, which was highest for cardiovascular mortality (75%, 95% CI: 73-78%) and lower by 5% and 4% for respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes, respectively. MMT increased with age for cardiovascular (0.19 °C per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.14-0.23) and non-cardiorespiratory causes (0.13 °C per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.09-0.16). These patterns were generally consistent across geographical regions. Overall, both MMT and MMTP differed by cause of death and age, indicating that the optimal temperature varies across population subgroups.

Author(s): Eom Seunghyun, Tobias Aurelio, Hashizume Masahiro, Yang Daewon, Demoury Claire, Lavigne Eric, Urban Aleš, Katsouyanni Klea, Sera Francesco, Chua Paul Lester Carlos, da Silva Susana das Neves Pereira, Royé Dominic, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana Maria, Gasparrini Antonio, Armstrong Ben, Zeka Ariana, Schwartz Joel, Abrutzky Rosana, Bauwelinck Mariska, Coelho Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Osorio Samuel, Correa Patricia Matus, Ortega Nicolás Valdés, Guo Yuming, Kan Haidong, Kyselý Jan, Jaakkola Jouni J K, Ryti Niilo, Pascal Mathilde, Analitis Antonis, Mayvaneh Fatemeh, Enteyari Alireza, Goodman Patrick, Michelozzi Paola, de'Donato Francesca, Kim Yoonhee, Ng Chris Fook Sheng, Madaniyazi Lina, Cauchy John Paul, Hurtado Diaz Magali, Félix Arellano Eunice Elizabeth, Rao Shilpa, Seposo Xerxes, Madureira Joana, Scovronick Noah, Acquaotta Fiorella, Kim Ho, Lee Whanhee, Íñiguez Carmen, Forsberg Bertil, Ragettli Martina S, Guo Yue Leon, Pan Shih-Chun, Li Shanshan, Zanobetti Antonella, Dang Tran Ngoc, Dung Do Van, Orru Hans, Indermitte Ene, Chung Yeonseung

Publishing year: 2026

Pages: 125043

Editor's website