Risk, Foresight, and Sustainable Development

Objective: Beyond their day-to-day activities of risk assessment, surveillance, and research, health agencies strive to anticipate future risks. The tools routinely used for this purpose are risk monitoring and foresight. This article describes a project, led by a consortium of agencies and research institutions, aimed at combining risk monitoring and foresight. The chosen theme is sustainable development and its implications for public health. Method: A foresight exercise was conducted, which identified five possible scenarios describing the implementation of sustainable development in France over the next twenty years: (a) unlimited priority given to growth; (b) from technological deadlock to social fragmentation; (c) green technologies and liberalism; (d) frugality and low technological intensity; (e) state-orchestrated ecological transition. In a second phase, approximately one hundred monitoring elements were analyzed and projected into the future according to the five scenarios. These monitoring elements constitute mini-narratives highlighting specific risks not necessarily addressed in a scenario that offers a more comprehensive vision. Results: This exercise highlighted the wide variability of these future projections from one individual to another, which argues for a collective approach. Among the risks discussed are those related to multi-recycling, agricultural practices, new dietary patterns, green jobs—often characterized by multiple exposures—and those resulting from certain technological innovations. Often these risks are common to several scenarios but can manifest in very different ways.

Author(s): Laurent Louis, Desqueyroux Hélène, Dunier Muriel, Eilstein Daniel, Enriquez Brigitte, Fillet Anne-Marie, Fleury Laurent, Hery Michel, Hoummady Moussa, de Jouvenel François, Menager Marie-Thérèse, Ormsby Jean-Nicolas, Prat O, Rambourg Marie-Odile, Schoonejans Eric, Wendling Cécile

Publishing year: 2017

Pages: 156-165

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