Modeling the trend in mortality from pleural mesothelioma in France. Projections through 2050

Introduction: Exposure to asbestos leads to the development of mesothelioma after a latency period of several decades. Several studies published about a dozen years ago predicted that in France, the peak in male mortality from mesothelioma would occur around 2020–2030, with an annual death toll ranging from 1,000 to 1,500. The objective of this study is to update this type of mesothelioma mortality projection using the most recent French data. Methods: Mortality data observed through 2009 were used, along with census data and demographic projections. Occupational and environmental exposure to asbestos among the population living in France was modeled based on import volumes of this mineral. A Poisson model predicting mortality was developed based on these parameters, enabling mortality projections through 2050 for both sexes. Results: The peak in mesothelioma mortality appears to have already been reached—in France—in the early 2000s, with 600 to 800 annual deaths among men and 100 to 200 among women. Mortality is currently declining and, according to our projections, will stabilize around 2030 at the level seen in the late 1970s. Conclusion: although mesothelioma mortality began to decline earlier than expected, 18,000 to 25,000 mesothelioma deaths are expected by 2050 in France. To assess asbestos-attributable mortality as a whole, an even larger number of deaths from bronchopulmonary cancer—also caused by past asbestos exposure—should be added to these estimates. (R.A.)

Author(s): Goldberg S, Rey G

Publishing year: 2012

Pages: 27 p.

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