The outbreak is spreading at a slower rate

Although less pronounced than since Week 10, the increase in incidence at the national level continued in Week 13 (+4% compared to Week 12), with 271,182 new confirmed cases, or nearly 39,000 cases on average each day. This slowdown varied by age group. The incidence increased among those aged 15–64 (+6%), while it stabilized among those aged 0–14, following a sharp increase over the previous three weeks and despite a still significant rise in the testing rate (+20%). It also stabilized among those aged 65 and older (+0% among those aged 65–74 and +1% among those aged 75 and older), with testing rates remaining stable in these age groups (+2%). This can be explained, on the one hand, by a decrease in individual testing due to the Easter weekend, and on the other hand, by the effect of the local lockdown in 16 departments implemented three weeks ago. Consistent with this trend, the increase in the number of at-risk contacts was also less pronounced than that observed the previous week.

The impact of restrictive measures on the epidemic: initial effects

On March 20, 2021, enhanced public health restrictions were implemented in 16 departments (Group 1). These measures were expanded to 3 additional departments on March 27 (Group 2) and were extended on April 3, 2021, to all 77 remaining metropolitan departments (Group 3).

In Group 1, week 13 saw the incidence rate of confirmed cases stabilize at a very high level (583 per 100,000 inhabitants) and, subject to data consolidation, a decrease in this indicator beginning April 1, 2021. The observed slowdown in viral circulation could correspond to the beneficial effects of the stricter restrictions that took effect on March 20 in this group of departments

For groups 2 and 3, the trend in incidence rates also appears to have leveled off in the most recent days of observation compared to the dynamics observed previously, with an initial stabilization in the last few days (since April 1), subject to data consolidation. If confirmed in the coming days, this trend would suggest a beneficial effect for Group 2 of the measures implemented there as of March 27. For Group 3, the slowdown observed simultaneously with that in Group 2 cannot be directly linked to the measures applied there starting April 3. This trend could be partly explained by a ripple effect from the enhanced measures previously implemented in Groups 1 and 2 and the communication campaigns disseminated at the national level.

Hospital indicators continue to rise

In hospitals, the weekly number of COVID-19 patient admissions has continued to rise (+9% compared to Week 12) since Week 10. The increase in the admission rate to critical care units, observed since Week 8, continued sharply in Week 13 (+14% compared to Week 12). These upward trends over the past several weeks have resulted in an increase in the number of people currently hospitalized, with 30,700 people hospitalized as of April 6 (vs. 28,570 on March 30, or +7%), including 5,644 patients in critical care (vs. 5,090 on March 30, or +11%). In week 13, the number of COVID-19-related deaths occurring in hospitals increased by 14%.

The 20I/501Y.V1 variant continues to spread

Results from the SI-DEP application on screening PCR tests indicating a variant of concern show that:

• 81.9% corresponded to a suspected 20I/501Y.V1 variant (which emerged in the United Kingdom)

• 4.2% corresponded to a suspected 20H/501Y.V2 variant (which emerged in South Africa) or 20J/501Y.V3 variant (which emerged in Brazil)

These variants were detected in all metropolitan regions. The proportion of suspected 20I/501Y.V1 variants was over 80% (among screened positive tests) in 54 metropolitan departments and over 90% in 6 of them.

As of April 7, 25 cases of infection with the 20C/655Y variant, which emerged in Brittany, had been confirmed by the CNR (22 in Brittany, 3 in other regions). All cases have a direct or indirect link to the enhanced surveillance zone in Brittany. The majority of cases are linked to transmissions within hospital clusters in the zone. A few cases have been reported in connection with a community transmission chain, but to date there has been no documented significant spread of this variant in the population, either in Brittany or elsewhere. Epidemiological investigations are ongoing to characterize the outbreak and monitor the spread of this variant.

Prevention: Continue vaccination

As of April 6, 2021:

• 9,561,733 people have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and 3,227,796 people have received two doses, representing 14.2% and 4.8% of the population in France, respectively

• 94.8% of residents in nursing homes (Ehpad) or long-term care facilities (USLD) have received a first dose of the vaccine, and 73.1% have received two doses.

It remains essential that anyone experiencing symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 immediately self-isolate and get tested as soon as possible. The use of digital tools (TousAntiCovid) is recommended to strengthen contact tracing and rapid isolation measures.