Description of the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the French overseas departments and regions (DROM) in light of containment measures. May 2020 to March 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic affected the overseas departments and regions, and all of these territories were thus impacted by the spread of the virus, albeit with different patterns and timelines. Overseas territories, in fact, have unique characteristics related to their geographic location as well as specific demographic features. Furthermore, as part of the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous measures were implemented at the national level, followed by local measures starting in June 2020. The objective of this study is to provide initial findings from a descriptive analysis of the impact of containment measures on the evolution of confirmed case incidence and hospital admissions in each territory. All departments and overseas regions were included in this study (Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Mayotte, and Réunion) as well as two overseas collectivities (Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin). National regulatory measures were implemented, specifically aimed at reducing travel and social interactions throughout the entire national territory, including the overseas territories. A review of prefectural decrees was also conducted by territory between March 2020 and the end of March 2021. The epidemiological indicators of interest analyzed for each overseas territory cover all age groups. These included: the weekly number of new confirmed cases and the incidence rates over a 7-day rolling period (per 100,000 inhabitants); the percentage changes in calendar-based incidence rates from one week to the next; and the incidence rates of hospital admissions over a 7-day rolling period (per 100,000 inhabitants). The analysis was based on data as of March 28 (including week 12) for confirmed cases (source: SI-DEP) and hospital admissions (source: SI-VIC) for each of the overseas territories. The description of the epidemic dynamics associated with the containment measures implemented highlights disparities among territories regarding both the progression of the epidemic and the number and type of measures deployed. In conclusion, this report presents exploratory work aimed at describing the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in relation to containment measures. It takes into account a very large number of measures, making it complex to establish a link between the dynamics and the measures taken, and makes the strong assumption of good compliance with the measures. It appears that only strong measures implemented relatively early could significantly reduce viral circulation and its health impact, namely: 1) widespread measures (lockdown, curfew) that reduce social interactions and mask-free activities, which are easily monitored to ensure compliance and implemented for a sufficiently long duration; 2) the restriction of traveler flows combined with virological testing. However, decision-making is not solely linked to the dynamics of the epidemic, and other decision-making factors (economic, societal, etc.) come into play. Furthermore, a measure that is effective in one region is not necessarily effective in another due to disparities in demographic, social, economic, environmental, and other characteristics. Decision-making should therefore be based on a shared and contextualized analysis to achieve explicit objectives. Ultimately, this work relies on a purely descriptive approach and does not allow for the definitive isolation of the specific effects of the measures implemented, as other factors may have interacted with them (weather conditions, vaccination coverage, etc.). In a second phase, an analytical approach using modeling would complement this work by taking these other factors into account in order to isolate and better quantify the effects of the various measures implemented. This report is part of the referral made on March 25, 2021, to Santé publique France by the Director General of Health [Appendix 1]. The results described in this report were submitted to the Director General of Health in July 2021.
Author(s): Filleul Laurent, Assogba Frank, Barrau Marie, Calba Clémentine, Daudens-Vaysse Élise, Hassani Youssouf, Menudier Luce, Laporte Anne, Larrieu Sophie, Mercier Alizé, Pognon Damien, Pouey Jérôme, Rousseau Cyril
Publishing year: 2021
Pages: 52 p.
Collection: Studies and Surveys
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