Public policies aimed at reducing smoking, which rely in part on price increases, have proven effective in reducing consumption over the past decade. Tobacco price increases spark numerous debates regarding the hypothetical growth of the black market, a phenomenon refuted by scientific studies that show that smokers’ purchasing behavior remains stable despite price hikes. Public agencies estimate the parallel market at between 10% and 20%, which is two to four times lower than the estimates produced by studies funded by the tobacco industry.

Smoking: Gradual Decline and Sharp Drop Among Adolescents

Data from the Santé publique France Barometer show a decline in smoking among adults since 2014, while data from ESCAPAD, the survey conducted by the OFDT among 17-year-olds, reveal a sharp drop in all indicators related to tobacco use in this population. These trends are confirmed and supplemented by the latest report on Smoking and Smoking Cessation for the year 2023, produced by the OFDT.

Thus, among 18- to 75-year-olds, according to data from the Santé publique France Barometer, daily smoking declined from 28.6% to 24.5% between 2014 and 2022, and the average daily consumption of daily smokers also decreased from 13.5 to 12.6 cigarettes per day. These two factors account for two-thirds of the decline in tobacco sales at tobacco shops.

As for 17-year-olds, their daily smoking rate has been cut in half, standing at 15.6% in 2022, compared to 32.4% in 2014. Trial rates saw an even more dramatic drop, falling from 68.4% in 2014 to 46.5% in 2022—a decrease of 22 percentage points. These data are particularly significant as they are among the factors explaining the decline in sales volumes at tobacco retailers: despite the legal ban, purchasing from tobacco retailers remains the preferred method of supply for teenage smokers: 76.9% of them say they have bought cigarettes themselves from a tobacco retailer at least once during the year.

Stability of the Parallel Market

While statistical surveys confirm the stability of French smokers’ sourcing methods between 2014 and 2022, it remains difficult to precisely quantify the parallel market because it encompasses both illegal practices (smuggling, counterfeiting) and legal ones (purchases abroad within the limits set by regulations) that resemble strategies for optimizing purchases.

Nevertheless, it appears that the main factor associated with purchases abroad, whether legal or illegal, is residing in a border department: the share of smokers who purchased their last pack in a neighboring country stands at 42% there, compared to only 7% on average in other departments. Similarly, the decline in sales volumes at tobacco shops is proportionally greater in these border departments (-33.2% since 2017) compared to non-border departments (-24.6%). The countries bordering mainland France have not raised tobacco prices as significantly, so tobacco is considerably cheaper there.

As for the share of purchases made on the street, it did not exceed 1% over the entire 2014–2022 period, suggesting no significant shift toward this supply channel despite the price increases that have occurred over the past decade.