COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for October 8: The virus continues to circulate at high levels; protecting those at risk of complications remains crucial

CP_pe_covid_081020.pdf

Published on 9 October 2020

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Santé publique France
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Stéphanie Champion: 01 41 79 67 48
Marie Delibéros: 01 41 79 69 61
Camille Le Hyaric: 01 41 79 68 64

Published weekly, the epidemiological update on COVID-19 surveillance provides a detailed analysis of the various indicators established by Santé publique France and its network of partners to track the progression of the epidemic and guide public policy decisions. The epidemiological update for October 8 shows that the epidemic continues to spread. Monitoring indicators are generally on the rise: the number of confirmed cases, positivity rates, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions, and deaths. It is crucial that everyone adhere to preventive measures by further reinforcing physical distancing and limiting private gatherings.

The outbreak continues, particularly among those aged 65 and older

In Week 40, the virus continues to circulate actively within the population. The number of new confirmed cases increased by 7%, rising from 72,895 in Week 39 to 77,980 in Week 40. Of particular concern, over the past 5 weeks, the number of cases has doubled among people aged 65 to 74 and has increased 2.2-fold among those aged 75 and older, who are more likely to develop severe forms of the disease.

In hospitals, the weekly number of new hospitalizations for COVID-19 rose slightly in week 40, with 4,264 new hospitalizations (+1% compared to 4,204 in week 39), the number of new ICU admissions continues to rise (893 in week 40 vs. 786 in week 39, a 14% increase), as do deaths occurring in hospitals.

If the current trend of the epidemic continues, it is estimated that the weekly number of new patients admitted to the hospital will double in 27 days and that the weekly number of new patients admitted to intensive care will double in 17 days.

Focus: Clusters in sports settings and surveillance of healthcare workers

Amid ongoing viral circulation, the number of clusters remains high, though it is certainly underestimated due to longer validation and reporting times and a decline in testing rates. A focus on sports settings reveals that since October 5, 223 clusters involving 1,710 cases (an average of 8 cases per cluster) have been reported. The majority of these occurred in soccer, rugby, basketball, and handball settings—sports among the most widely played and involving contact with a proven risk of transmission.

A new report on salaried staff at public or private inpatient healthcare facilities who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 since March 1, 2020, has been compiled. As of October 5, 2020, 36,266 infected staff members had been identified within these facilities: 82% (29,610) were healthcare professionals and 10% (3,777) were non-healthcare professionals. The two professions most frequently affected are nurses (28% of cases) and nursing assistants (23% of cases).

Key Concepts

Daily, weekly, and rolling weekly data: an overview of these concepts

Data is constantly being reported to surveillance systems by all of our partner networks. This data can be analyzed daily, weekly, or over a 7-day rolling period.
When monitoring an outbreak, the daily indicator is not necessarily the most relevant one to track, as it provides little historical perspective. The weekly indicator, which is based on data collected over a calendar week (Monday through Sunday), allows for week-to-week comparisons. The calendar-based approach is used by all epidemiologists. The weekly indicator is preferred because it allows for robust analysis. The 7-day moving average smooths the data to better identify epidemic trends by filtering out daily fluctuations. This indicator is the most widely used because it provides a more responsive view of the situation.

Rates or numbers: what do they really tell us?

Numerous indicators related to the epidemic are reported daily. These may include:

numbers, such as the number of tests performed, the number of people tested, and the number of positive cases. These indicators provide a snapshot of the epidemic and are published daily to promote shared information and transparency;
rates, such as the incidence rate, the testing rate, or the positivity rate. As the result of a ratio between two values, they allow for comparisons based on a common denominator. For example, the incidence rate is calculated by dividing the number of positive cases over a “rolling” week by the total population at the national, regional, departmental, or city level.

To track the epidemic in the general population, it is therefore advisable to monitor the rates that allow for comparisons between regions over time.