Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.
Auteur : Domingo Nina G G, Fiore Arlene M, Lamarque Jean-Francois, Kinney Patrick L, Jiang Leiwen, Gasparrini Antonio, Breitner Susanne, Lavigne Eric, Madureira Joana, Masselot Pierre, das Neves Pereira da Silva Susana, Sheng Ng Chris Fook, Kyselý Jan, Guo Yuming, Tong Shilu, Kan Haidong, Urban Aleš, Orru Hans, Maasikmets Marek, Pascal Mathilde, Katsouyanni Klea, Samoli Evangelia, Scortichini Matteo, Stafoggia Massimo, Hashizume Masahiro, Alahmad Barrak, Diaz Magali Hurtado, la Cruz Valencia César De, Scovronick Noah, Garland Rebecca M, Kim Ho, Lee Whanhee, Tobias Aurelio, Íñiguez Carmen, Forsberg Bertil, Åström Christofer, Ragettli Martina S, Guo Yue Leon, Pan Shih-Chun, Colistro Valentina, Bell Michelle, Zanobetti Antonella, Schwartz Joel, Schneider Alexandra, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana M, Chen Kai
One earth, 2024, vol. 7, n°. 2, p. 325-335
