Heat-health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days

Publié le 1 Juin 2010
Mis à jour le 5 juillet 2019

Objectives: We compared the ability of several heat-health warning systems to predict days of heat-associated mortality using common data sets. Methods: Heat-health warning systems initiate emergency public health interventions once forecasts have identified weather conditions to breach predetermined trigger levels. We examined 4 commonly used trigger-setting approaches: (1) synoptic classification, (2) epidemiologic assessment of the temperature-mortality relationship, (3) temperature-humidity index, and (4) physiologic classification. We applied each approach in Chicago, Illinois; London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; and Montreal, Canada, to identify days expected to be associated with the highest heat-related mortality. RESULTS: We found little agreement across the approaches in which days were identified as most dangerous. In general, days identified by temperature-mortality assessment were associated with the highest excess mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Triggering of alert days and ultimately the initiation of emergency responses by a heat-health warning system varies significantly across approaches adopted to establish triggers. (R.A.)

Auteur : Hajat S, Sheridan SC, Allen MJ, Pascal M, Laaidi K, Yagouti A, Bickis U, Tobias A, Bourque D, Armstrong BG, Kosatsky T
American Journal of Public Health, 2010, vol. 100, n°. 6, p. 1137-44